Houston is the only favorite in Week 7 laying a touchdown or more. That's usually a signal the market knows something the standings don't.
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Latest games articles from across the NFL.
The 5-0 Chiefs Are Underdogs in Seattle, and the Number Has a Point The first thing to notice about Kansas City's trip to Lumen Field isn't the 5-0. It's the minus sign in front of Seattle.
Green Bay is 4-2 with a plus-two point differential. Detroit is 3-2 at plus-16, and the Lions have scored 164 points to Green Bay's 127. One of those records is doing a lot of work for a team that has…
Broncos at Cardinals, Week 7: The Number Says Comfortable. Denver Hasn't Been. Denver is 4-2 and has not won a game comfortably. That's the whole argument for taking Arizona and the points, and it's t…
Tampa Bay is 1-5 and has not lost a game by more than a single score. That's the entire case for the visitor at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, and it holds up better than the record does.
Colts at Vikings: Minnesota is 5-0 and the line still sits at 5.5 Five wins, zero losses, and the market won't get near a touchdown. That's the whole argument for Indianapolis on Sunday at U.S. Bank S…
Lamar Jackson is questionable. That line sits above everything else in this preview, because Baltimore -3 is a bet that either Jackson plays or the rest of the roster is good enough without him.
MetLife Stadium, Sunday at 1:00 local. Miami is 0-5 with a -62 point differential. New York is 2-4 with a -10. The standings show a two-game gap between these clubs. The scoring shows a wider one.
49ers at Falcons Week 7: The Line Says Blowout, the Results Say Otherwise The market has this one filed. San Francisco 49ers -4.5, total 50.5, Atlanta Falcons +185 on the moneyline, 49ers -225 (odds…
Browns at Titans: A 4-2 Team the Market Won't Back Cleveland is 4-2 and favored by a point and a half on the road against a 1-5 team.
Week 7 puts the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints in Stade de France, and the designated home team is a bookkeeping entry.
Drake Maye's passer rating was 117.8. Caleb Williams's was 116.7. Maye lost. The adjusted QBR is the correction the raw rating needs: Williams 83.3, Maye 74.6.
Two 4-2 teams meet at Soldier Field in Week 7 for a 20:15 local kickoff, and the only market worth arguing is the total. Chicago is -3. The total is 49.5.
Jayden Daniels threw for 300 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, posted a 110.4 passer rating, and will spend the week being told he played well. He didn't.
Two interceptions will be the story, because they're the easy story. The number that actually decided this one is 54: Dak Prescott's pass attempts, and the 4.8 yards each of them bought.
Tre Tucker's 44-yard touchdown with 1:32 left is the reason this reads 33-30. Kirk Cousins hit him deep over the middle, Matt Gay tacked on the extra point, and a game Buffalo had controlled got dress…
Patrick Mahomes threw 30 passes and not one of them produced a touchdown, and the Chiefs are 5-0 anyway. That's the actual takeaway from a 22-6 win over the Chargers, not the record.
Arizona scored 18 points and Jacoby Brissett did not throw a single one of them. He finished 24 of 35 for 218 yards with no touchdowns, one interception and a 73.3 passer rating, and he won anyway.
Aaron Rodgers threw 49 passes for 253 yards, and the Pittsburgh Steelers needed overtime to beat a team that's now 1-5. Both things are true. The second one is the story.
The Saints won 34-27 and the number that matters isn't 34. It's 144. Tyler Shough threw for 144 yards. Sixteen completions on 30 attempts, 4.8 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, no interceptions,…
The Jets threw for 252 yards and lost by seven. That is the game. Geno Smith's line reads like a winning afternoon: 20 of 30, 252 yards, 8.4 an attempt. Then you reach the part that decides games.
Cam Ward threw for 102 yards and won the game. Daniel Jones threw for 269 and spent the afternoon getting up off the ground. Tennessee beat Indianapolis 26-20 to reach 1-5.
The losing quarterback had the better passer rating. Tyler Huntley finished 19 of 31 for 165 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and an 86.1 rating.
The Falcons gave Bijan Robinson nine carries. He averaged 6.8 yards on them, with a long of 23. Chicago is 4-2 and Atlanta is 2-4, and the reason sits right there in the box score, not in the 31-23 fi…
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-2. The Houston Texans are 2-4. The 34-31 final says the records have it backwards. Start with the two passing lines, because that's where this game lived.
The Rams are 2-3 with a point differential of minus one, and the market is asking them to beat Arizona by two scores. That is the case for the Cardinals +12.5.
Levi's Stadium, Monday night, and the standings say this shouldn't be a game. San Francisco is 5-0, 154 points scored, 93 allowed, plus-61. Washington is 1-3-1, 115 scored, 149 allowed, minus-34.
The Packers Are 3-2 and Have Been Outscored. The Cowboys Are 2-3 and Haven't. Green Bay has won three of five. Green Bay has also been outscored on the season, 104 points for and 112 against.
Bills at Raiders: The Over Isn't About Josh Allen The easy case for Over 52.5 when Buffalo visits Allegiant Stadium is Josh Allen. Allen, James Cook III and Dalton Kincaid hung 41 on Detroit and 37…
The line is Pittsburgh -3. Our number is Tampa Bay 20, Pittsburgh 19. Between those two positions sits a Buccaneers injury report that lists the quarterback as doubtful.
Jalen Hurts is Out. That fact will drive every conversation about Carolina at Philadelphia this week, and it makes the lazy read obvious: fade a 2-3 team laying points at home.
New Orleans has 118 points. The Giants have 109. One club is 1-4, the other is 3-1-1, and only one of those two sets of numbers is going to matter at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
New England's point totals this season, in order: 10, 20, 6, 29, 45. That is the Under case in five numbers, and it is the only side of this game worth money.
Bears at Falcons, Week 6: the total is the play Chicago has scored 59 points in a game this season and three in another. Atlanta has scored 45 and three.
Three points. That's the entirety of Tennessee's Week 5 output, a 3-26 home loss to Houston that pushed the Titans to 0-5. We're still on them.
The most important name on this game is not in the projected score. Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable. That is also why the market is sitting where it is: Ravens -3.5, total 40.5, Cleveland +190…
Jacksonville is 4-1 with a plus-53 point differential. Houston is 1-4 with a minus-2. One of those numbers is going to look silly by Sunday evening, and it probably isn't the one you'd guess.
Denver won a game in which its quarterback threw for 107 yards. Bo Nix went 17 of 27 for those 107, no touchdowns, no interceptions, 4.0 yards an attempt. The Broncos are 4-2 anyway.
Denver is 3-2 with a minus-14 point differential. Read that twice. The Broncos have scored 97 points and allowed 111 across five games, and they're a game over .500 anyway.
Josh Allen threw 19 passes and won a game in which Matthew Stafford threw 54. That's the shape of Buffalo's 37-34 overtime win, and it wasn't a fluke of the scoreboard.