The Packers Are 3-2 and Have Been Outscored. The Cowboys Are 2-3 and Haven't.
Green Bay has won three of five. Green Bay has also been outscored on the season, 104 points for and 112 against. Dallas has lost three of five and has outscored its opponents, 138 to 136. That is the entire case for taking the road team, and it is the part the standings hide.
The Packers' 3-2 is thinner than it reads. Wins at the Jets (20-17) and at Tampa Bay (17-14) were close finishes, and the loss at Minnesota (22-39) and the loss to Atlanta (14-35) were not. The Chicago game, 31-7 in Week 5, is the only result that makes this look like a team that belongs in a Lambeau night game. One of five.
Dallas's 2-3 runs the other way. The Cowboys lost to Baltimore 31-34, beat Washington 37-20, won at Houston 34-30 and dropped a home game to Tampa Bay 16-24. The offense has produced 138 points, more than Green Bay's 104, against a schedule that has not been kind.
Now the part that decides it. Green Bay's injury list is a defensive front gutted at the worst possible spot. Micah Parsons is out. Javon Hargrave is out. Jordon Riley is out. Devonte Wyatt, Jonathan Ford and Anthony Campbell are all questionable. That is every interior defensive lineman except Karl Brooks and Chris McClellan carrying a designation, and no edge rusher the Cowboys have to game-plan around. Dallas lines up Kenny Clark, Quinnen Williams, Otito Ogbonnia and LT Overton against that. Dak Prescott gets a pocket. Prescott with a pocket and CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and KaVontae Turpin running against a corner room where Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste are both questionable is the mismatch nobody is talking about.
Green Bay's counter is real, and it is the reason this number is under two. Jordan Love with Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson and Jonnu Smith against a Dallas secondary where Cobie Durant and Ameer Speed are questionable behind DaRon Bland. If both of those corners sit, Love has room. Josh Jacobs is out for Green Bay, though, so the run game that would normally slow a pass rush and eat clock belongs to MarShawn Lloyd, Pierre Strong Jr. and Kaleb Johnson. Dallas can rush the passer on early downs.
The line is Green Bay -1.5 with a total of 52.5, moneyline -115 on the Packers and -105 on Dallas (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12). A number that tight makes special teams matter, and Dallas carries Brandon Aubrey while Green Bay carries Trey Smack. That is not a footnote at a line this short.
We already published this one: Dallas Cowboys 27, Green Bay Packers 24, best bet Dallas +1.5, and under 52.5 on the total. The total call comes from the same read. We think the Packers score less than the price expects, because the team that has been outscored through five weeks is being asked to win a game and clear a number that assumes a functioning offense and a functioning defensive front. Only one of those is on the injury report as missing.
The single thing most likely to break our position is the Dallas corner room. If Durant and Speed can't go and Love gets a clean night at Lambeau against Bland and whoever else is left, the Packers can win this and win it comfortably, and our under goes with it. I'll take the Dallas offense against a Packers front missing Parsons, Hargrave and Riley, and I'll take the points.
