Texans vs. Jaguars at Wembley: the 1-4 team that isn't bad
Jacksonville is 4-1 with a plus-53 point differential. Houston is 1-4 with a minus-2. One of those numbers is going to look silly by Sunday evening, and it probably isn't the one you'd guess.
Start with the Texans, because the record buries them. They lost to Buffalo by five, at Indianapolis by two, and to Dallas by four. The outlier is the 6-20 dud against Cincinnati in Week 2. Everything else has been a one-score game or better. Then Week 5, at Tennessee, 26-3 on the road. That's a team with a functioning quarterback in C.J. Stroud and downfield receivers who can punish a defense that can't cover them.
Jacksonville's case is simpler and stronger. The Jaguars haven't lost since Denver in Week 2, and they've beaten Cleveland, New England, Cincinnati on the road and Philadelphia while allowing 70 points across five games. They're the better team. They are also the designated home team for scheduling and betting purposes only, and that matters more than usual here. Wembley is Wembley. No EverBank crowd, no silent count, no familiar turf. Whatever edge a normal home game hands Jacksonville, this one doesn't have it.
Now the part that decides the afternoon. Jacksonville's injury report lists nine names, four of them defensive backs. Cornerbacks Jarrian Jones, Jourdan Lewis and Montaric Brown are all questionable, as is safety Eric Murray. Stroud throwing to Nico Collins and Marvin Harrison Jr. against a secondary working off a thinned list is the best matchup on the field for either offense. Flip it, and Trevor Lawrence has Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter against Houston's pass rush of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., with Jacksonville's line unsettled. Anton Harrison is on injured reserve. Cole Van Lanen and Emmanuel Pregnon are both questionable.
Then the absences nobody is talking about. Houston running back David Montgomery is out, leaving Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale in the backfield. Safety Jalen Pitre is out. Tank Dell is on injured reserve. Azeez Al-Shaair and Jake Hansen are questionable at linebacker.
The line is Jacksonville -3 with a total of 43.5, moneylines of Jacksonville -148 and Houston +124 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12). Our published call is Houston 21, Jacksonville 24. A word on the side: our own projection lands exactly on three, so the spread is a push and there's nothing to argue about there. The total is the bet.
Both teams score here. Jacksonville has put 123 points on the board in five games, and Houston's defense has now given up 36, 34 and 31 in three separate weeks. The Jaguars' offense moves it against almost anyone, and Houston's does enough to hold up its end.
The one thing that can break the over is Houston's offensive line. Jacksonville's edge group is the deepest unit in this game, and with Montgomery out the Texans can't make anyone respect the run on the way to the passer. If Stroud spends the afternoon on his back, this turns into a slog and 43.5 starts looking tall.
I'll take the over anyway. Jacksonville is the better team on paper, but Houston is the more desperate one, and desperate teams with a quarterback like Stroud keep scoring into the fourth quarter. Over 43.5.
