Cardinals at Rams: The Market Is Asking a 2-3 Team for a Blowout
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | Week 6 | SoFi Stadium | Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Rams are 2-3 with a point differential of minus one, and the market is asking them to beat Arizona by two scores. That is the case for the Cardinals +12.5, and it is a strong one.
Los Angeles has been in a fight almost every week. The results: 7-27 to San Francisco, 28-6 over the Giants, 26-30 at Denver, 24-20 at Philadelphia, 34-37 to Buffalo. Denver, Philadelphia and Buffalo all came down to a single possession. The one afternoon the Rams looked like a team that buries people was Week 2 against New York. Arizona is not New York.
Arizona is 1-4 and has lost four straight, and the scores are as ugly as the record: 7-31 to Seattle, 30-36 at San Francisco, 24-36 at the Giants, 21-45 to Detroit. The offense is not the reason. The Cardinals have scored 26, 30, 24 and 21 in four of their five games, the outlier being that seven-point afternoon against Seattle. The problem is a defense that has allowed 31, 36, 36 and 45 over the last month.
That is also why the over 52.5 rides along with the points. Los Angeles has surrendered 27, 30 and 37 in three of its five games. Two defenses that give up points, and one of them attached to an offense that has scored 28, 26, 24 and 34 in four games. The number is 52.5. Our projected score clears it.
Now the part that has to go right for Arizona.
Running back James Conner is on injured reserve and Jeremiyah Love is out, which leaves the backfield to Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight. Tackle Paris Johnson Jr., guard Isaiah Adams, tight end Hunter Long and safety Kitan Crawford are on injured reserve too. Andrew Wingard and Wydett Williams Jr. are out at safety, and Budda Baker and linebacker Zaven Collins are questionable. That is a pile of attrition for an offensive line and a backfield that now has to hold up against the Rams' pass rush.
Arizona's quarterback room as listed is Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew II and Carson Beck. Trey McBride at tight end and Michael Wilson at receiver are the pass catchers who matter most. On the other side, the Rams' secondary has two question marks: corner Trent McDuffie and safety Kam Curl are both questionable, with Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Jaylen Watson and Quentin Lake around them.
Los Angeles has its own report. Edge rusher Myles Garrett is on injured reserve, and so are tight end Terrance Ferguson and tackle Keagen Trost. Tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended. None of that is the reason to take Arizona. It just chips at the idea that the Rams are a finished product right now.
The matchup that decides this one is Arizona's offensive front against the Los Angeles pass rush, and by extension whether the Cardinals can stay on schedule enough to keep scoring into the second half. If they can, the Rams have shown all season they will let a team hang around. If they cannot, the number dies early and the over goes with it.
Our published call is Arizona 24, Los Angeles 31, with the Cardinals +12.5 and the over 52.5. The line is Rams -12.5, total 52.5, moneyline Los Angeles -675 / Arizona +490 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12). We are not picking Arizona to win. We are picking the market's implied 20-32 for the Cardinals to be too low, and a Rams team that has won twice all year to not suddenly win by the margin the price demands.
The one thing most likely to break it is Paris Johnson Jr. sitting on injured reserve. If the Cardinals cannot protect long enough to let Brissett, Minshew or Beck find McBride and Wilson, this becomes the kind of afternoon where the Rams are up big in the third quarter and we lose both halves of the bet.
I will take the points and the over anyway. Twelve and a half is a bet against a 2-3 team with a minus-one differential, and until Los Angeles proves it can put somebody away, I am going to keep making it.
