Miami Is Winless by 62 Points. The Jets Are Only Favored by 4.5.
MetLife Stadium, Sunday at 1:00 local. Miami is 0-5 with a -62 point differential. New York is 2-4 with a -10. The standings show a two-game gap between these clubs. The scoring shows a wider one.
Miami's five results: 13-27 at Las Vegas, 13-35 at San Francisco, 10-24 to Kansas City, 10-15 at Minnesota, 24-31 to Cincinnati. That's 70 points for, 132 against. Only once in five games has Miami scored more than 13 points, and that once came in a game Cincinnati answered with 31. Our projection asks the Dolphins for 14. They've hit that number in one game this season.
New York's six results: 23-10 at Tennessee, 17-20 to Green Bay, 24-31 at Detroit, 12-23 at Chicago, 17-12 over Cleveland, 19-26 at New England. The Jets have scored between 12 and 24 in every game and have allowed more than 26 exactly once. Six weeks in, that's a team with a recognizable floor. Miami is still looking for one.
The matchup that decides this is Miami's offense against New York's defense, and the honest version of that matchup starts with the Jets' injury report. New York lists two doubtfuls in the front seven, Joseph Ossai at edge and Kiko Mauigoa at linebacker, with Will McDonald IV and T'Vondre Sweat both questionable. That is the real threat to our position. Miami's quarterback room reads Kyle McCord and Malik Willis on the roster, and neither has been handed anything resembling a stable supporting cast: Jaylen Wright is questionable and Caleb Douglas is questionable, with Kyle Louis on injured reserve.
The other side of the ball is where the spread gets made. Miami has allowed 24 or more in four of five games. New York's offense hasn't been explosive, but it hasn't needed to be, and Breece Hall's questionable designation is a margin problem for the Jets rather than a result problem. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are on the roster behind him.
New York is -4.5 with a total of 38.5 and a moneyline of -230 to Miami's +190 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19). That moneyline says the market already knows who wins. The spread is the argument, and the argument is that a winless team with a -62 differential is being spotted less than a touchdown at home against a club that has been within one score in four of its six games. Our projection has the Jets clear of the number and the total staying under. Best bet: New York Jets -4.5.
The thing most likely to break it isn't Miami's offense finding a gear it hasn't shown. It's a Jets front seven missing Ossai and possibly McDonald and Sweat, turning a 14-point allowance into 21 and forcing New York to win a shootout it isn't built for. I don't think that happens. The Jets have held two opponents to 12 or fewer, and Miami hasn't topped 24 all year. Take the favorite and the under.
