Three points. That's the entirety of Tennessee's Week 5 output, a 3-26 home loss to Houston that pushed the Titans to 0-5.
We're still on them. Our published best bet is Tennessee +7, with the projection Titans 20, Colts 25 and the Over at 44.5 riding along with it. The market sees a wider gap than we do: the Colts are laying seven, total 44.5, moneyline Indianapolis -325 / Tennessee +260, odds via ESPN and captured Monday. We think the seven is too much, and the reason is Indianapolis's own defense.
Start there, because that's where the number gets soft. The Colts are 2-3 with 124 points scored and 138 allowed. Baltimore hung 41 on them in Week 1. Kansas City put up 33 in a 30-33 loss in Week 2. Pittsburgh dropped 34 on them in Week 5. The two opponents Indianapolis actually held down, Houston at 17 in a 19-17 win and Washington at 13 in a 30-13 road win, are the reason this team sits at 2-3 instead of something better. A defense surrendering that much cannot be asked to beat anyone by more than a touchdown, and a winless opponent with nothing to protect is exactly the wrong team to ask it against.
Tennessee's counter is simpler than Indianapolis's problem. The Titans don't have to be good. They have to be competent. They scored 20 against Philadelphia in a 20-24 loss and 18 at Baltimore in an 18-24 loss, and they did it with the same quarterback room, Cam Ward and Mitchell Trubisky, that just got shut down by Houston. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears give them a backfield that can shorten a game, assuming Spears, listed questionable, can go. Calvin Ridley, Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate are enough at receiver to punish a defense that has already given up three scoreboard-filling days.
The matchup that decides this one is Tennessee's secondary against Indianapolis's receivers, and it tilts toward the Colts on paper. The Titans list Amani Hooker as questionable and Kevin Winston Jr. as doubtful, with Marcus Harris also questionable and Joshua Williams on injured reserve. That's a defensive backfield shedding bodies in the same week it meets Keenan Allen, Josh Downs and Darius Slayton. Indianapolis isn't whole there either, with Alec Pierce on injured reserve and Ashton Dulin questionable, so the advantage is real but not overwhelming.
Flip it around and the Titans have their own pressure point to exploit. Arden Key is on injured reserve, thinning the edge group opposite Laiatu Latu and Jaylahn Tuimoloau, and Jalen Travis is questionable along an Indianapolis line that has to deal with Jeffery Simmons, Jermaine Johnson II and John Franklin-Myers. If Tennessee can get to the quarterback room of Anthony Richardson Sr., Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard even a handful of times, the Colts' offense becomes one-dimensional and the seven gets very hard to cover.
Lucas Oil Stadium, 1 p.m. local, Week 6. The Titans are chasing a first win, and the Colts are chasing a winning record. Only one of those is a genuine pressure, and it isn't Indianapolis's.
The single thing most likely to break our position is Tennessee's own offense, not the Colts'. Another week of field goals and 44.5 is gone, the +7 goes with it, and the argument about Indianapolis's defense becomes academic. I'll take the risk. Tennessee has lost five games by playing close and losing late, and one of those games was decided by a field goal against Houston. The Titans cover, the total goes over, and the Colts win by less than the number. Titans 20, Colts 25, Titans +7, Over 44.5.
