Two interceptions will be the story, because they're the easy story. The number that actually decided this one is 54: Dak Prescott's pass attempts, and the 4.8 yards each of them bought.
Green Bay won 23-13 at home and is 4-2. Dallas is 2-4, beaten by a Packers team that got almost nothing on the ground. Pierre Strong Jr. carried 11 times for 28 yards, 2.5 a pop, with a long of 6. Jordan Love threw 41 times for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception, took three sacks for 15 yards, and posted an adjusted QBR of 56.3. That's not a quarterback carrying an offense. That's an offense surviving on one receiver.
The receiver was Matthew Golden: 6 catches, 104 yards, a 37-yard long, one touchdown, on 13 targets. Thirteen targets to a rookie while the lead back averaged 2.5 a carry tells you what Green Bay's plan became. It worked because Dallas never made them pay for it.
Here's where the consensus gets it wrong. The Cowboys didn't lose this because Prescott threw two interceptions. They lost it because the passing game has become a substitute for offense instead of a complement to it. CeeDee Lamb drew 18 targets and turned them into 70 yards, 7.8 a catch, long of 17. George Pickens got 11 targets for 6 catches and 73 yards. Ryan Flournoy caught 7 for 40 and the Cowboys' only receiving touchdown. Javonte Williams ran 11 times for 41 yards and a score. Tyler Goodson got 2 carries for 0.
When the leading back gets 11 carries and the quarterback throws 54 passes, the defense knows where the ball is going, and the yards per attempt give the answer: 4.8. That is a passing game operating at screen-and-checkdown depth against a secondary happy to tackle. Lamb's 9 catches for 70 yards looks like volume. Functionally it was a coverage win for Green Bay.
The closing sequence makes the point. With 3:11 left, Daniel Whelan punted 51 yards and Jonathan Mingo was pushed out at the Dallas 22 for a 2-yard return. The Cowboys had the ball, trailing 23-13, with three minutes and change. The next entries in the play log are a Green Bay timeout at 0:44 and the end of the game. No drive. No threat.
Green Bay deserves credit for 4-2 and for Golden, who looks like the real thing on a night when nobody else generated explosive plays. But the Packers just won 23-13 with 28 rushing yards from their lead back and a 56.3 adjusted QBR from their quarterback. That's a team winning on margins and one rookie's legs, and it's a thinner 4-2 than the standings suggest.
Dallas is 2-4 because it threw 54 times at 4.8 yards an attempt and asked 11 carries to hold up the other side of the ledger. Prescott's interceptions are noise next to that. Until the Cowboys build an offense that doesn't live on 54 throws, the picks will keep coming and the record won't move. Green Bay gets the win and a lot more benefit of the doubt than it has earned.
