Drake Maye's passer rating was 117.8. Caleb Williams's was 116.7. Maye lost.
The adjusted QBR is the correction the raw rating needs: Williams 83.3, Maye 74.6. That's the read on Chicago's 30-24 win at home, which moved the Bears to 5-2 and dropped New England to 4-3. The two quarterbacks weren't separated by arm talent or by yards. They were separated by one interception, and by the fact that Maye had to do all of it himself.
Maye went 24 of 31 for 321 yards, two passing touchdowns and a pick, with two sacks costing 11 yards. Williams went 22 of 33 for 308, two touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks for 19 yards, and 9.3 yards per attempt against Maye's 10.4. Maye was the more efficient thrower on the night. He also threw the game's only interception, and his offense had no other way to move the ball.
Here's the number that should worry New England. Maye's 4 carries produced 26 yards, more than Rhamondre Stevenson managed on six carries (22). Corey Kiner had 4 for 13. TreVeyon Henderson had 3 for 9. The quarterback was the run game. A 31-attempt night from a quarterback who also takes two sacks produces exactly this kind of game, one where the margin is thin enough that a single turnover decides it. Maye spread it around well enough, with Hunter Henry catching 7 of 7 targets for 71 yards, and it still wasn't a second gear.
Chicago's version is less spectacular and more repeatable. D'Andre Swift carried 22 times for 78 yards, 3.5 a pop with a long of 10. Not efficient. But 22 carries is a commitment, and it meant Williams didn't have to throw it 40 times to reach 308.
Luther Burden III did the explosive work on four targets: 4 catches, 130 yards, 32.5 per reception, a 58-yard long and a touchdown. Every pass thrown his way was caught. Chicago's entire vertical margin came from four throws, which is the cheap version of what New England was attempting with 31.
New England's defense wasn't the problem. Christian Elliss made 13 tackles, Marcus Jones had 9 with a sack and two tackles for loss, and Craig Woodson added 8. Holding Swift to 3.5 a carry is a win for that front. It bought the Patriots a night where the game stayed within one score, and an offense that couldn't close it.
The kicks settled it. Cairo Santos hit from 58 yards with 1:34 left. Andy Borregales answered from 47 with 37 seconds on the clock, the last scoring play of the night. Santos's kick came from a distance most offenses can't count on covering, and it gave Chicago a cushion it never surrendered. New England's response was a field goal, which is what a team with no run game and no timeouts converts into at the end.
My verdict: New England's 4-3 is softer than Chicago's 5-2, and it will read that way by December. Maye's yards per attempt will stay pretty because he's good. Until the Patriots can hand the ball to a running back and get four yards, they'll keep losing games they out-throw the opponent in. The Bears won this one because Williams didn't give it away, and not giving it away travels.
