Jets at Patriots: The Under Is the Only Bet Here
New England's point totals this season, in order: 10, 20, 6, 29, 45. That is the Under case in five numbers, and it is the only side of this game worth money.
The Patriots are -7 at Gillette Stadium with a total of 44.5, priced -325 on the moneyline against the Jets' +260 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12). Our projection is New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 24. That lands exactly on the spread, so the side is a push and not a bet. The total is the play, and we are on the Under.
Start with what New England has actually done. The 45-point afternoon against Las Vegas is the outlier, and so is the 29-point trip to Buffalo. In the three weeks before those, the Patriots scored 10, 20 and 6, and they lost two of the three. The 3-2 record and the plus-16 differential are real. The offense that produced them is not the one the last two weeks suggest, and 44.5 is a number built for the last two weeks.
New York's totals run 23, 17, 24, 12, 17. The only game above 23 points was a loss at Detroit. The wins came 23-10 at Tennessee and 17-12 over Cleveland. The Jets are 2-3 with a minus-3 differential, and they have been a low-ceiling offense for five straight weeks.
Now the availability, which is where our position carries real risk.
New York lists Breece Hall (RB), Adonai Mitchell (WR), Joseph Ossai (DE) and Dylan Parham (G) as doubtful, with Kenyon Sadiq (TE) and Dane Belton (S) questionable and both Omar Cooper Jr. and Braiden McGregor on injured reserve. Hall doubtful pushes the backfield toward Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis and Kene Nwangwu. Mitchell doubtful leaves Garrett Wilson and Sterling Shepard as the names in that receiver room. Both cuts point the same direction: fewer chunk plays, lower total.
New England's list runs the other way. Eleven Patriots are questionable, including Kevin Byard (S), Marcus Jones (CB), Carlton Davis III (CB), Morgan Moses (OT), Will Campbell (OT), TreVeyon Henderson (RB) and Dre'Mont Jones (DE), with A.J. Brown on injured reserve. The uncertainty concentrates in the secondary and along the offensive line.
The matchup that decides the number is Garrett Wilson against whatever New England fields at corner. If Byard, Jones and Davis are all limited or out, the Jets have a path to the kind of game that beats a 44.5 total, and our Under is the thing that breaks. If they play, a Jets offense missing Hall and Mitchell has no second option to punish anybody.
Our call stands: New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 24, Under 44.5. The spread is a push at seven, so leave it alone. The one thing most likely to break this is a New England secondary playing short, and that is the risk worth watching Sunday afternoon.
