NFL Roundup: Rams Lose Jackson to Suspension, Swap Kickers as 49ers Take Super Bowl Favorite Tag
Two things landed on the Rams in the same news cycle, and the betting market handed their division rival the crown while they were still absorbing both.
ESPN reports the NFL is expected to suspend Rams offensive tackle Alaric Jackson for two games for a punch. Los Angeles is coming off a loss to Buffalo, and now it loses a starter on the offensive line. My read: the league does not shade punch cases down, and the missed snaps are the smaller half of this. The Rams' line depth was already the part of that offense with the least margin, and asking a backup to hold up in the run game and in protection for two weeks is how a good season gets a bad month. Depth is the entire argument here, and Los Angeles just spent some.
Then the kicking situation, because the Rams can't get through a week without one. Harrison Mevis made five of his nine field-goal attempts this season, and the Rams signed Blake Grupe to replace him. Mevis is the reason for the move. Grupe being the Rams' eighth different kicker since 2020 is the story. That's not a kicker problem, it's a process problem, and swapping the name on the jersey doesn't fix it. I expect Grupe to hold the job into the back half of the season, and I expect the Rams to be shopping again the moment he misses a kick he has to make.
Buffalo's defense is the other fire. Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford combined for 652 passing yards in back-to-back games against the Bills, and Colin Cowherd questioned the Bills' secondary and the lack of support for Josh Allen. That framing gets it backwards. The Bills' issue isn't what surrounds Allen, it's what lines up across from the opposing quarterback. New England and Los Angeles are different offenses with different designs, and Buffalo made both of them comfortable. If I'm running that building, I'm not adding a pass catcher this week. I'm fixing the back end, because that's the unit giving away Sundays.
Washington is the loudest story, and the loudest story has the thinnest evidence. Packers linebacker Micah Parsons said Jayden Daniels "probably cost Dan Quinn his job," referring to a clock disaster, and Stephen A. Smith predicted the Commanders will fire Quinn after part-owner Magic Johnson's postgame comments. Count the inputs. A linebacker on another team, a television host, and an owner. Only one of those three signs anything. My read is that Quinn coaches the next game, because a part-owner venting after a loss is frustration, not a decision, and midseason firings of this kind usually wait for a second ugly Sunday. I'll know I was wrong if Washington comes out flat and the postgame comments change tone.
The 49ers have moved ahead of the Rams and are now the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI in betting odds. The market isn't reacting to San Francisco so much as it's reacting to Los Angeles' week. A punch suspension and a kicker change move prices more than they move standings. I'd take the Rams at the longer number, because a two-game absence and a kicking swap are fixable problems, and because being the October favorite is worth exactly nothing when the games that decide this get played in January. That's my bet, and the way I lose it is if the Rams' line depth turns out to be worse than anyone inside that building believes.
The NFL has until October 20 to make a schedule move on the Week 8 Sunday night flex, per CBS Sports. The deadline is the tell. Flexing this late isn't about getting the best game on television, it's about keeping a bad one off it, and some fan base is going to lose a home Sunday night over it.
In Dallas, the Cowboys' defense held what was reported as a heart to heart players meeting Monday morning. Player-only meetings are cheap. They cost nothing and they produce a quote. The test isn't whether Dallas communicates better, it's whether the Cowboys tackle better, because a defense that needs a meeting to hear what the coaches already said has a scheme problem, not a message problem. I'd expect a sharper start. I won't expect a different result until the plan or the personnel changes.
Stance, on the record: I'd buy the Rams at the longer price, I'd bet Quinn survives the week, and I'd bet Dallas' meeting is forgotten by the second quarter.
