Texans at Titans: Houston Lays 6.5 Into the Lowest Total on the Card
Two winless teams, one small number, and a favorite that hasn't actually won anything yet.
Houston visits Nissan Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. local. The Texans are 0-4. The Titans are 0-4. Houston has scored 84 points and allowed 109. Tennessee has scored 55 and allowed 83. This isn't a game between two teams searching for an identity. It's a game between two teams searching for one Sunday that doesn't end badly.
Look at how each got here. Houston lost 31-36 to Buffalo, lost 6-20 to Cincinnati, lost 17-19 at Indianapolis, lost 30-34 to Dallas. Three of those four were one-score games, and the Texans put up 30 or more twice. Tennessee lost 10-23 to the Jets, 20-24 to Philadelphia, 7-12 at the Giants, 18-24 at Baltimore. Three of those were one-score games too. The difference is where the points came from.
Houston's problem is the 109 it has given up. Tennessee's problem is the 55 it has scored. Read the Titans' defensive results and a pattern holds: their four opponents have posted 23, 24, 12 and 24. Nobody has run away from them. Now read the Texans': 36, 20, 19, 34. Houston has been in track meets and lost them.
That is the entire case for the number. Our call is Houston Texans 23, Tennessee Titans 16, with Titans +6.5 and the under 39.5 as the plays. The price, per ESPN on Mon Oct 5, has Houston at -6.5 with the total at 39.5 and the moneyline at Titans +245 / Texans -305. That 39.5 is the lowest total on the card. Pair a low total with a 6.5-point spread and you've drawn a narrow band: the favorite has to win and cover, and the underdog only has to stay close. Tennessee has stayed close in three of four games, and against better opponents than this one.
The matchup that decides it is Tennessee's defense against a Houston offense that has alternated between functional and stuck in the mud. The Titans gave up 24 to the Eagles, 12 to the Giants, 24 to the Ravens. The Texans scored six against Cincinnati. If Houston needs to reach the high 20s to cover, it's asking a team that hasn't won a game to do something it hasn't done all season. The -305 moneyline makes the Texans a heavy favorite to win outright, and I don't dispute that. Winning and covering are different jobs, and Houston hasn't held a lead to a finish yet.
My verdict, signed: Titans +6.5 and under 39.5. This is a defense that keeps games compressed catching a favorite that has never pulled away from anybody.
The risk to our own position is Tennessee's offense. It managed seven points at the Giants and ten in the opener, and if that unit hands Houston short fields in the first half, the Titans' defense can play well for three quarters and still lose this going away. That's the one thing that breaks the call, and it's the one thing Tennessee hasn't fixed in four weeks.
