NFL Week 7 Picks: Every Game, Every Number
Fourteen games, all of them priced, and the market has jammed most of the board inside a field goal and change. One favorite is laying a touchdown or more: Houston Texans at 9.5. Our projections split from the price on most of this card, and the two loudest disagreements sit in Atlanta and Las Vegas. Every number below is odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
The line: Chicago Bears -3, total 49.5, moneyline Chicago Bears -155 / New England Patriots +130 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: Our number lands exactly on the 3, so the spread is a push and is not a bet. The market's own split does the same: it prices this 23-26. That leaves the total as the only market with margin in it, and the two sides disagree there. The market's split sits right on 49.5. Ours sits beneath it. When a spread has no daylight under it, the total is the whole play.
Best bet: Under 49.5
Score: New England Patriots 20, Chicago Bears 23
Total: Under 49.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
The line: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, total 44.5, moneyline New Orleans Saints +120 / Pittsburgh Steelers -142 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 24-21. We have the home side winning outright, which makes the 2.5 the softest number on the card relative to our projection. A short road favorite with a moneyline this close to pick'em is the profile that gets beaten by a field goal more often than the price admits. New Orleans at +120 is live if the spread is.
Best bet: New Orleans Saints +2.5
Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 21, New Orleans Saints 23
Total: Under 44.5
New York Giants at Houston Texans
The line: Houston Texans -9.5, total 43.5, moneyline Houston Texans -470 / New York Giants +360 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: No disagreement here. We and the market agree on the score, so the honest read is that 9.5 looks right. The pick follows from the projection rather than from a gap: Houston is the only favorite on this slate laying a touchdown or more, and our number still has the margin inside the number. That is the entire argument for the visitor.
Best bet: New York Giants +9.5
Score: New York Giants 17, Houston Texans 26
Total: Under 43.5
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
The line: Cleveland Browns -1.5, total 36.5, moneyline Tennessee Titans +105 / Cleveland Browns -125 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: A 36.5 total is the market telling you it doesn't trust either offense, and the moneyline has the home side at plus money on a near pick'em spread. The market prices it 19-18. We also have Tennessee, just by more, which makes +1.5 the side rather than the moneyline. Our number stays under the total too, so both markets point the same direction.
Best bet: Tennessee Titans +1.5
Score: Cleveland Browns 17, Tennessee Titans 19
Total: Under 36.5
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
The line: San Francisco 49ers -4.5, total 50.5, moneyline Atlanta Falcons +185 / San Francisco 49ers -225 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 28-23 San Francisco. We have Atlanta winning the game. That is the largest side-to-side flip on the card, and the 4.5 with a +185 moneyline is where the argument lives. The total goes over on our number, but the side is the bet. If San Francisco covers this, my read of the price is wrong.
Best bet: Atlanta Falcons +4.5
Score: San Francisco 49ers 24, Atlanta Falcons 28
Total: Over 50.5
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
The line: New York Jets -4.5, total 38.5, moneyline New York Jets -230 / Miami Dolphins +190 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 17-22 and we have the Jets further clear than that split does, which is what turns a 4.5 into a play rather than a pass. The moneyline at -230 says the market already knows who wins; the question is margin. Our projection answers it above the number. The total stays under on our card as well.
Best bet: New York Jets -4.5
Score: Miami Dolphins 14, New York Jets 20
Total: Under 38.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
The line: Baltimore Ravens -3, total 51.5, moneyline Baltimore Ravens -155 / Cincinnati Bengals +130 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market's split lands exactly on 3: it prices this 24-27. That price offers no margin at all, so laying it is a bet that our number is right and the split is short. Ours has Baltimore clear of the field goal. The total leans the other way from the market too, with our number above 51.5 and the split beneath it. Both markets are live, and they agree on the side.
Best bet: Baltimore Ravens -3
Score: Cincinnati Bengals 24, Baltimore Ravens 28
Total: Over 51.5
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
The line: Minnesota Vikings -5.5, total 41.5, moneyline Minnesota Vikings -245 / Indianapolis Colts +200 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 18-24, which covers. Ours doesn't. That is the case for the visitor: a 5.5 with a -245 moneyline is a price that needs a comfortable win, and our projection has this settling inside one score. The total goes over on our number, so the points are there for the underdog to stay close with.
Best bet: Indianapolis Colts +5.5
Score: Indianapolis Colts 20, Minnesota Vikings 24
Total: Over 41.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
The line: Carolina Panthers -3.5, total 44.5, moneyline Carolina Panthers -180 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 20-24 and has Carolina covering. We have the Panthers winning and not covering. A 3.5 is the number that punishes a team that wins ugly, and the moneyline at -180 says ugly is exactly what the market expects. Take the visitor and the points. Our number stays under 44.5 in a game the spread says is decided late.
Best bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Carolina Panthers 23
Total: Under 44.5
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
The line: Denver Broncos -4.5, total 42.5, moneyline Arizona Cardinals +180 / Denver Broncos -218 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 24-19, which covers. We have Denver winning inside the number. That's the whole bet: a 4.5 with a -218 moneyline is a price for a comfortable road win, and our projection doesn't produce one. The total goes over on our number, which fits a Cardinals team staying in contact through the air rather than a grind that lets Denver pull away.
Best bet: Arizona Cardinals +4.5
Score: Denver Broncos 23, Arizona Cardinals 20
Total: Over 42.5
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
The line: Detroit Lions -3, total 52.5, moneyline Detroit Lions -166 / Green Bay Packers +140 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: Two disagreements in one game. The market's split lands exactly on 3: it prices this 25-28, so the price gives you nothing. Our number has Detroit clear of the field goal. And on the total the market's split sits above 52.5 while ours sits below it, which is the rarer combination on this card: lay the favorite, take the under. A 52.5 total on a division game is a number built on reputation.
Best bet: Detroit Lions -3
Score: Green Bay Packers 24, Detroit Lions 28
Total: Under 52.5
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
The line: Los Angeles Rams -5.5, total 46.5, moneyline Las Vegas Raiders +210 / Los Angeles Rams -258 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 26-20 and has the Rams covering. We have the Raiders winning the game. Nothing else on this card is that far from the price. A 5.5 with a -258 moneyline is the market's most confident road position on the slate, and confidence is exactly what a +210 home number gets paid to punish. Over 46.5 on our number as well.
Best bet: Las Vegas Raiders +5.5
Score: Los Angeles Rams 21, Las Vegas Raiders 27
Total: Over 46.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
The line: Seattle Seahawks -2.5, total 42.5, moneyline Seattle Seahawks -135 / Kansas City Chiefs +114 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 20-22, which lands short of the 2.5. Ours clears it. In a game priced this tight, the field goal is the difference between a home win and a push against the number, and our projection has Seattle on the right side of it. The total goes the other way from the market too: our number is above 42.5, the split below it.
Best bet: Seattle Seahawks -2.5
Score: Kansas City Chiefs 20, Seattle Seahawks 23
Total: Over 42.5
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
The line: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, total 44.5, moneyline Philadelphia Eagles +180 / Dallas Cowboys -218 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 19)
The read: The market prices it 24-20 and has Dallas covering. We have the Cowboys winning and not covering, which is the least dramatic call on the card and the one I'm most comfortable with. A 4.5 in a division game with a +180 home moneyline is a number that asks the favorite to do more than the price suggests it can. Under 44.5 on our number.
Best bet: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5
Score: Dallas Cowboys 23, Philadelphia Eagles 21
Total: Under 44.5
The two calls I'd defend hardest are Las Vegas at +210 and Atlanta at +185, because both flip a side the market has priced with conviction. If the Rams and 49ers both cover, the method behind this card is wrong, not just the picks. Grade it Sunday.
