NFL Week 6 Predictions: Every Game, Every Line, Every Pick
Fourteen games on the Week 6 card. Five favorites are laying a touchdown or more: Indianapolis Colts at 7, New England Patriots at 7, Los Angeles Rams at 12.5, Kansas City Chiefs at 8.5, San Francisco 49ers at 7.5. Big numbers, and we are not afraid to take the other side of them.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Seattle Seahawks -3, total 41.5, moneyline Denver Broncos +130 / Seattle Seahawks -155 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: Our number has Denver winning this outright. The market prices it 22-19 the other way, so we are not merely on the dog, we are ahead of the price on the dog. Seattle laying three on the road is the kind of line that rewards taking the home team. The Over 41.5 is the cleaner side of the total, and our projection clears it.
Best bet: Denver Broncos +3
Score: Seattle Seahawks 20, Denver Broncos 24
Total: Over 41.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Jacksonville Jaguars -3, total 43.5, moneyline Jacksonville Jaguars -148 / Houston Texans +124 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: The spread is a push. The score lands exactly on 3, so that market is not a bet and there is nothing to argue about on the side. The total carries the call. We have both teams scoring, and we sit above the market's 20-23 reading of the same game. Over 43.5.
Best bet: Over 43.5
Score: Houston Texans 21, Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Total: Over 43.5
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Chicago Bears -3, total 47.5, moneyline Atlanta Falcons +145 / Chicago Bears -175 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: Another push on the spread — our score lands exactly on 3 — so the side is off the board and the total is the play. Our 27-24 is a higher-scoring game than the market's 25-22, and that gap is why we are on the Over. 47.5 does not require a shootout. It requires both teams to keep scoring into the fourth quarter, which is what we expect here.
Best bet: Over 47.5
Score: Chicago Bears 27, Atlanta Falcons 24
Total: Over 47.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Baltimore Ravens -3.5, total 40.5, moneyline Cleveland Browns +190 / Baltimore Ravens -230 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: We are not settling for the cover. We have the Browns winning this game. The market prices it 22-18 Baltimore; we have the whole thing the other way and lower. Under 40.5 pairs naturally with that — our number sits under the total — and the +190 is sitting there for anyone who wants the outright rather than the points.
Best bet: Cleveland Browns +3.5
Score: Baltimore Ravens 17, Cleveland Browns 23
Total: Under 40.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Indianapolis Colts -7, total 44.5, moneyline Indianapolis Colts -325 / Tennessee Titans +260 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: We have the Colts winning and the Titans covering. The market prices it 19-26, a wider gap than ours, so there is real daylight between us and the price on the side, and we are on the +7. Our projection also clears 44.5, so the Over goes with it. Two calls, one game, both pointing at the underdog side of the number.
Best bet: Tennessee Titans +7
Score: Tennessee Titans 20, Indianapolis Colts 25
Total: Over 44.5
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: New England Patriots -7, total 44.5, moneyline New England Patriots -325 / New York Jets +260 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: Push on the spread — our score lands exactly on 7, so the side is not a bet. The total is, and we are on the Under 44.5. New England wins the game; we simply do not see the offense on either side to push this past the number. We are also lower than the market's 19-26. Take the Under and leave the spread alone.
Best bet: Under 44.5
Score: New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 24
Total: Under 44.5
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: New Orleans Saints -1.5, total 45.5, moneyline New York Giants -105 / New Orleans Saints -115 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: We have the Saints winning and the Giants covering. That is the entire case. At 1.5 the dog is live, and a moneyline priced essentially even tells you the market sees this as close to a coin flip. Our number is lower than the market's 24-22, which is where the Under 45.5 comes from.
Best bet: New York Giants +1.5
Score: New Orleans Saints 23, New York Giants 22
Total: Under 45.5
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Philadelphia Eagles -1.5, total 42.5, moneyline Philadelphia Eagles -118 / Carolina Panthers -102 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: A tiny number, and we are laying it. The Eagles win and cover. The market's 20-22 says the same thing about the side, so the disagreement here lives on the total, where we are higher than the price and playing the Over 42.5. Small spreads are decided by which team you trust to finish. We trust the home side.
Best bet: Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
Score: Carolina Panthers 21, Philadelphia Eagles 23
Total: Over 42.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Pittsburgh Steelers -3, total 40.5, moneyline Tampa Bay Buccaneers +130 / Pittsburgh Steelers -155 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: We have Tampa Bay winning this outright. The market prices it 22-19 Pittsburgh, so this is a genuine split, and getting a home team we like to win at +3 is the sort of price worth taking. Under 40.5 is the total call: our number lands under it, and this shapes up as a game decided in the teens and low twenties.
Best bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Total: Under 40.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Los Angeles Rams -12.5, total 52.5, moneyline Los Angeles Rams -675 / Arizona Cardinals +490 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: Twelve and a half is a lot, and we are taking it with the Cardinals. The Rams win — we have them at 31 — but the market's 20-32 has Arizona lower than we do, and that difference is the gap we are shopping. Over 52.5 rides along. If the Cardinals are scoring the way we think they will, this game has the offense to get past the number.
Best bet: Arizona Cardinals +12.5
Score: Arizona Cardinals 24, Los Angeles Rams 31
Total: Over 52.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5, total 42.5, moneyline Kansas City Chiefs -395 / Los Angeles Chargers +310 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: The Chiefs win. We just do not have them winning by more than eight and a half. We are a notch lower on Kansas City than the market's 17-26, and that notch is the whole bet at +8.5. Under 42.5 goes with it — a tighter, lower-scoring game than the price is suggesting. Both calls come from the same place: we think this one stays close.
Best bet: Los Angeles Chargers +8.5
Score: Los Angeles Chargers 17, Kansas City Chiefs 25
Total: Under 42.5
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Buffalo Bills -6, total 52.5, moneyline Las Vegas Raiders +210 / Buffalo Bills -258 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: Push on the spread — our score lands exactly on 6, so there is no side here. The total is where we are playing, and we are on the Over 52.5 with a higher-scoring game than the market's 29-23. Buffalo 30, Las Vegas 24. That is the call. The side is not.
Best bet: Over 52.5
Score: Buffalo Bills 30, Las Vegas Raiders 24
Total: Over 52.5
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: Green Bay Packers -1.5, total 52.5, moneyline Green Bay Packers -115 / Dallas Cowboys -105 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: We have Dallas winning in Green Bay. The market has the Packers winning 27-26; we have Dallas higher and the Packers lower, and at a number this tight that difference is the entire edge — take the points with the road team. Under 52.5 is the total call, and it comes from the same place: we think the Packers score less than the price expects.
Best bet: Dallas Cowboys +1.5
Score: Dallas Cowboys 27, Green Bay Packers 24
Total: Under 52.5
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
Full preview coming before kickoff.
The line: San Francisco 49ers -7.5, total 50.5, moneyline San Francisco 49ers -440 / Washington Commanders +340 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Oct 12)
The read: The 49ers win, and we are taking the Commanders with the points. We are higher on Washington than the market's 22-29, and at +7.5 that is the entire bet. Over 50.5 comes with it, because we think Washington scores enough to keep this game moving all afternoon rather than fading in the second half.
Best bet: Washington Commanders +7.5
Score: Washington Commanders 24, San Francisco 49ers 30
Total: Over 50.5
And in 4 of 14 games our projected margin lands exactly on the spread, so the call there is the total rather than the side: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars; Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons; New York Jets at New England Patriots; Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders. That is the shape of this card — sides where the number lets us have one, totals where it does not. Those are the calls.
