NFL power rankings, built on results through October 19. The order is computed from results; the notes explain it.
Three teams are unbeaten at the top — San Francisco at 6-0, Minnesota and Kansas City at 5-0 — while the Chargers sit 0-6 at the bottom. New England and Houston climbed ten and eleven places, and Baltimore, Cincinnati and Detroit sit in the top half without a win over a team with a winning record. The unbeatens have earned the top of this table; the untested teams in the top half have not.
1. Minnesota Vikings — 5-0 (up 2)
Minnesota is 5-0 and has beaten Chicago (4-2) and Green Bay (4-2), and no game has been decided by one score. The defence allows 12.8 points a game, fewer than anyone. The offence scores 21.8, 20th, which is the part still unproven: the defence has carried them, and it has not yet had to be the other way round.
2. Kansas City Chiefs — 5-0 (down 1)
Kansas City is 5-0 and has barely been threatened, allowing 16.6 points a game, second-fewest in the league, while scoring 28.0, fifth-most. The win over Denver (4-2) is the one result that answers the obvious question about a soft schedule, and the Chargers went into half-time 19-3 down. A team that plays to the same level every week and has not lost by a wide margin looks like the real thing.
3. San Francisco 49ers — 6-0 (down 1)
San Francisco is 6-0, scoring 29.5 a game, third in the league, and allowing 18.3, fourth. They trailed Seattle after three quarters and won anyway, and the win list includes Denver (4-2). Against one of the softer schedules, the record is clear and the ceiling is not.
4. Buffalo Bills — 5-1 (up 4)
Buffalo is 5-1 and scoring 32.8 a game, more than any team in the league, with wins over Detroit (3-2) and Las Vegas (3-3). But three of six games came down to one score, and the defence gives up 28.5 a game, 28th of 32, so the margins stay thin. The offence is carrying a team that keeps letting opponents hang around.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars — 4-2 (down 1)
Jacksonville has beaten Cincinnati (3-2), New England (4-2) and Cleveland (4-2), and at 3-1 against winning-record teams the resume rests on real opponents. They give up 17.3 points a game, third-fewest in the league, and score 25.7. The 31-34 loss to a 2-4 Houston side is the tell: a high ceiling, and a floor lower than the record suggests.
6. Chicago Bears — 4-2 (down 1)
Chicago is 4-2 and has beaten Carolina (3-2), with a defence allowing 19.8 points a game, sixth in the league. The 7-31 loss to Green Bay is the other side of this team, and the offence at 25.0 a game is what decides which version shows up. The defence is good enough; the offence is the question.
7. Denver Broncos — 4-2 (up 7)
Denver was behind the Chargers after three quarters and took the game with a 13-0 final quarter. Against Seattle it led 14-3 at half and held on. The defence allows 20.8 a game, 10th in the league, while the offence scores 19.0, 26th. Beating Jacksonville (4-2) is the best win they own, and the offence is the part that has to catch up.
8. Baltimore Ravens — 4-2 (up 1)
Baltimore is scoring 26 points a game, seventh in the league, and it came from behind after three quarters to beat Atlanta 30-23. But no win has come against a team with a winning record, and Cleveland wiped out a 10-0 half-time lead in a 10-13 loss. The offence is real; the record is soft until a winning team is beaten.
9. Cincinnati Bengals — 3-2 (up 7)
Cincinnati is 3-2, but all three wins came against losing sides, the best of them Houston at 2-4, and the Bengals are 0-2 against teams that finished with a winning record. They led Miami 28-10 after three quarters before the final quarter went 3-14, and a 25.6-point offence ranked ninth should not need that cushion. The record is real; the schedule behind it is not.
10. New England Patriots — 4-2 (up 10)
New England has beaten Buffalo (5-1) and Pittsburgh (4-2), and the wins have come by wide margins — 45-17 over Las Vegas was over by the third quarter at 35-10. The defence allows 18.8 a game, fifth-fewest in the league, while the offence sits at 22.7. A 4-2 record against one of the harder schedules is real; the week-to-week swings are what keep this a team to watch rather than trust.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers — 4-2 (up 7)
Pittsburgh is 4-2 and climbed seven spots after scoring 16 in the fourth quarter to turn a 3-16 deficit into a 26-19 win over Tampa Bay. The Bengals (3-2) are the best name on the resume, and a 1-2 mark against winning records shows the soft schedule is doing work. The defence is carrying a middling offence.
12. Carolina Panthers — 3-2 (up 7)
Carolina has beaten Detroit (3-2) and just handled Philadelphia 25-14, leading after three quarters and putting up 12 in the fourth. The offence scores 29.2 a game, fourth in the league, and the wins have come by wide margins. The problem is the swings: 24.6 allowed a game sits 21st, and the Cleveland loss is the other side of it.
13. Cleveland Browns — 4-2 (down 3)
Cleveland has beaten Baltimore (4-2), Pittsburgh (4-2) and Carolina (3-2), and it is 3-0 in games decided by one score. They are scoring 17.7 a game, 28th in the league, while allowing 20.3, seventh. The defence is carrying an offence that leaves little room, and that is a narrow way to stay at 4-2.
14. Seattle Seahawks — 3-3 (down 7)
Seattle is 3-3, and four of its six games were decided by one score; the Seahawks went 1-3 in them. They beat New England (4-2) and are allowing 20.3 points a game, seventh in the league, but they led San Francisco after three quarters and lost 29-32. The defense is good enough; the offense has to close these games.
15. Detroit Lions — 3-2 (up 2)
Detroit is scoring 32.8 a game, second-most in the league, and the Week 5 win over Arizona turned on a 24-point second quarter. But the defence allows 29.6, 30th of 32, and every win has come against a losing side; they are 0-2 against teams that finished with a winning record. That is a team built to outscore bad opponents, not to stop good ones.
16. Green Bay Packers — 4-2 (up 6)
Green Bay allows 20.8 a game, 10th in the league, and beat Chicago (4-2) 31-7 while handling Dallas. The offence scores 21.2, 22nd, and swings from week to week, which is why a 4-2 record feels less settled than it reads. They win the close ones; they have not shown another way.
17. Las Vegas Raiders — 3-3 (down 11)
Las Vegas is scoring 27 a game, sixth-most in the league, and giving up 27, which is 26th — the offence keeps them in games the defence hands back. Every win has come against a losing side, and the Raiders are 0-3 against teams with winning records. The 30-33 loss to Buffalo, level at half-time, is the shape of this team: close, not yet enough.
18. Los Angeles Rams — 2-4 (down 6)
The Rams have lost the close ones, 34-37 to Buffalo and 16-18 to Arizona, trailing after three quarters in both and going 0-2 in one-score games. They beat the Giants (3-2) but are 1-3 against teams with winning records. A 22.5-point offence, 19th in the league, is not the kind that wins the tight ones.
19. New York Giants — 3-2 (down 8)
All three wins have come against losing teams — the best of them Arizona, at 2-4 — and New York has not beaten a side with a winning record. The Giants trailed New Orleans 10-27 after three quarters before a late rally made it 27-34. The record is real; the opposition behind it is not.
20. New York Jets — 2-4 (up 5)
The defence is keeping New York in games — 20.3 points allowed a game is seventh-fewest in the league — while the offence at 18.7, 27th, gives them little room. They beat Cleveland (4-2) 17-12 and have lost four of six to teams that finished with winning records. A 2-4 team living on defense has a narrow path.
21. Houston Texans — 2-4 (up 11)
Houston beat Tennessee 26-3 and Jacksonville 34-31, and the Jacksonville win came against a 4-2 team. That is the shape of the season: that result stands alone, with 1-2 against teams that finished with a winning record and 23.8 points a game allowed. The offence is doing its part; the defence is what has to change.
22. New Orleans Saints — 2-4 (up 6)
New Orleans has beaten the Giants (3-2) and the Ravens (4-2), and it is scoring 25.3 points a game, 10th in the league. The problem is the other side: they allow 29.7, 31st of 32, and against Minnesota they were level after three quarters before conceding the last 10 points. A 2-4 record fits a team that can move the ball but cannot get stops.
23. Indianapolis Colts — 2-4 (down 10)
Indianapolis led Tennessee 13-6 after three quarters, then the final quarter went 7-20 and the game 20-26. The Colts score 24 a game but allow 27.3, 27th of 32, and every win has come against a losing side, Washington among them. Leading late and losing anyway is the shape of this team.
24. Atlanta Falcons — 2-4 (down 3)
Atlanta is 2-4, and the one win that stands up is Green Bay (4-2); against winning records it is 1-4. The Falcons led Baltimore 17-15 after three quarters and lost 23-30, then trailed Chicago 7-28 after three and lost 23-31. They score 23.7 a game, 16th, and allow 25.5, 23rd. The offence is ordinary; the defence and late quarters are why they sit here.
25. Dallas Cowboys — 2-4 (down 10)
Dallas is scoring 25.2 a game, 11th in the league, and allowing 26.5, 25th, so the offence has been the sturdier half of a 2-4 team. The wins have come against losing sides — the best of them Washington at 1-4 — and Dallas is 0-3 against teams that finished with a winning record. A record built on the league's weaker teams against a soft schedule is the part that will not travel.
26. Arizona Cardinals — 2-4 (down 2)
Arizona's wins have come only against losing teams, and the best of them was an 18-16 escape from a Rams side that is 2-4. Against Detroit they lost 21-45, and they are allowing 29.7 points a game, 31st of 32. The offence does enough to beat losing teams; the defence is why they cannot beat anyone else.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 1-5 (up 2)
Tampa Bay led Pittsburgh 16-3 after three quarters and lost 19-26. They have not beaten a team with a winning record; the best win is over Dallas, who are 2-4. They score 19.8 a game, 25th in the league, and that offense is why they sit here.
28. Philadelphia Eagles — 2-4 (down 5)
Philadelphia is 2-4, and every win has come against a losing side; the best of them is Tennessee, at 1-5. They score 17.7 points a game, 28th in the league, and have not beaten a team with a winning record. The offence is the drag, and the soft schedule has flattered the record.
29. Tennessee Titans — 1-5 (down 3)
Tennessee's lone win came against a 2-4 Colts team, and it took a 20-point fourth quarter after trailing 6-13 through three. The Titans have not beaten a side with a winning record, and they are scoring 14 a game, 31st of 32, while allowing 21.5, 13th. The defence is holding up its end; the offence is why they sit here.
30. Miami Dolphins — 0-5 (up 1)
The offence is the problem: Miami is 0-5 and scoring 14 points a game, 31st of 32, while allowing 26.4. Miami trailed 7-21 at half-time and 10-28 after three quarters against Cincinnati, and a 14-3 fourth quarter only dressed up the score. Playing to the same level every week is not the same as improving.
31. Washington Commanders — 1-4 (down 4)
One win, over a Seattle team that is 3-3, and nothing against a side with a winning record. Washington scores 21.0 a game, 23rd in the league, and allows 29.0, 29th; losses come by more than almost anyone's. Against San Francisco they were down 3-20 at half-time, and a 7-0 fourth quarter was too late to mean anything.
32. Los Angeles Chargers — 0-6 (down 2)
The Chargers have not been in a close game all year, and the last two show why: they led Denver 17-10 after three quarters and lost 17-23, then fell 6-22 to Kansas City. They score 15 a game, 30th in the league, and have not beaten a team with a winning record. Steady week to week is not the same as good enough.