Las Vegas is 2-0 and the market is offering a plus price to take them. New Orleans is 1-1 and laying 3.5 at home. That gap between record and price is the whole story of Sunday afternoon at Caesars Superdome, and it's why I'm on the favorite.
Start with what the Raiders actually did. They beat Miami 27-13, then won at the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14. That's 53 points scored, 27 allowed, a point differential of plus-26. None of that is fake. Las Vegas hasn't let an opponent reach 20 yet, and it did the harder half of that work on the road.
Now the résumé nobody wants to price. New Orleans lost at Detroit 30-31, then won at Baltimore 24-17. The Saints have scored 54 points and given up 48, a differential of plus-6, and that 48 is the number that should scare anyone holding this ticket. The Lions put 31 on them.
Here's my read, and it's judgment rather than data: the Ravens and Lions are a different tier of offense than the Dolphins and Chargers, and the Saints' two-week body of work is worth more than the Raiders' zero in the loss column. The moneyline agrees with me. New Orleans is -175 to win outright, Las Vegas +145 (odds via ESPN, captured Monday, Sept. 21). A 2-0 team getting plus money against a 1-1 team is a line that makes people feel clever for about three hours.
The matchup that decides it is New Orleans' defense against a Las Vegas offense that has scored 27 and 26 without ever being asked to chase a game. Our projection is Las Vegas Raiders 20, New Orleans Saints 24. For that to be right, the Saints have to look like the Baltimore version of themselves, the one that gave up 17, and not the Detroit version, the one that gave up 31. I think a home dome and an opponent that hasn't had to play from behind gets New Orleans there.
Under 44.5 rides on the same logic. Las Vegas has conceded 13 to Miami and 14 to the Chargers. New Orleans' Week 2 win finished 24-17. The under doesn't require a shutdown from either side. It requires the Raiders' defense to keep being the best unit on the field, which caps the game for both teams at once.
The thing most likely to break our position is that defense. If Las Vegas holds the Saints the way it held Miami and Los Angeles, New Orleans never reaches 24, the favorite loses outright, and the 2-0 team walks out of the Superdome with the win and the money. That's the risk, and it's real. It isn't enough to move me off the number.
The price, per ESPN on Monday, is New Orleans Saints -3.5 with a 44.5 total, and I'll pay it. Our call stands: Raiders 20, Saints 24, under 44.5. I'd rather buy the team that went into Baltimore and won than the one that's 2-0 against Miami and the Chargers. Give me the Saints.
