The Vikings Are 4-0. The Offense Isn't Why.
Minnesota sits alone atop the NFC North at 4-0. Over the past three weeks, its special teams have outscored its offense.
Those two sentences belong in the same paragraph, and the second one is the story. A 4-0 record is supposed to mean a functioning offense. In Minnesota's case it means the kicking game and the coverage units have been carrying a group that isn't finishing drives. ESPN reported the split, and it's the kind of number that corrects itself in a hurry, usually in the wrong direction.
The box score from Sunday's game in Minneapolis makes the case plain. Miami's Malik Willis threw for 85 yards on 9-of-17 with no touchdowns, a lost fumble, and a 67.0 passer rating. Yet Miami's defense was on the field long enough for Jacob Rodriguez to pile up 18 tackles, and the Dolphins held Minnesota's return game in check: five kick returns from Jaylen Wright at 19.4 yards a pop. Nobody moved the ball well. One team just happened to score on the units that don't need a quarterback.
That's the part that won't hold. Blocked punts, return touchdowns, and short fields off turnovers are variance, not a plan. They swing games in September and October and dry up in December, when the weather gets bad and offenses have to line up and convert third-and-7.
For fantasy purposes, the read is uncomfortable but real. Until Minnesota's offense proves it can turn red-zone trips into touchdowns, the only Viking you can start with a straight face is the defense/special teams unit. Fading Minnesota's skill players in DFS isn't a contrarian play anymore. It's the boring, correct one, and it holds until someone on that offense actually scores with the ball in his hands.
I'll take the under on this record holding. Four-and-oh is real. The offense behind it is not, and I'd rather be early on that than late.
— The Fantasy/DFS Grinder
