Green Bay is laying seven at home to a team that has scored 16 points in two games. That should be a mismatch. The scoreboards say otherwise. The Packers have allowed more points through two weeks than the winless Falcons, 56 to 54, and their only win is a 20-17 escape at the Jets.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. local, Lambeau Field.
Atlanta's case starts ugly: 0-2, 16 points for, 54 against, a minus-38 differential. A 13-20 loss at Pittsburgh, then a 3-34 home loss to Carolina. That Carolina score is doing most of the work on this number, and it's why anyone holding a Falcons ticket should be nervous. It's also the reason the price is what it is. You don't get to take this team getting a full seven without a genuine chance it hands you a repeat of Week 2.
Green Bay's case is thinner than 1-1 suggests. 42 points for, 56 against, minus-14. A 22-39 loss at Minnesota, then 20-17 at the Jets. The Packers' best scoring day is 22 points. Our projection hands them 26, which would be their highest of the young season, and this is a team laying a full seven at home in a short week. For the favorite to be the right side here, Green Bay has to pull away. Nothing in two weeks suggests pulling away is available to them. Their wins require the opponent to help, and Atlanta is a generous opponent.
The line: Packers -7, total 44.5, moneyline Green Bay -345 / Atlanta +275 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 21). Those prices are not the same bet, and the gap between them is the whole article. At -345 the market has Green Bay winning this game outright, and in a landslide of probability. At -7 it has no idea by how much. I am not calling for the upset. At +275, that's someone else's money and someone else's argument. I'm taking the points, because with this ticket the push is my floor, not my ceiling. Atlanta can lose this game and still cash. That asymmetry is the only reason to be here.
The matchup that decides it is Atlanta's offense against a Green Bay defense that has already given up 56 points. The Falcons' high-water mark is 13 points, at Pittsburgh. If their offense finds that again, the Packers never separate, because Green Bay's defense has shown no ability to slam a door. If it can't, and the Carolina game is the real thing, this gets away from us quickly and the +275 on the other side starts looking like the smart ticket.
The total is the second half of the card. 44.5 asks both offenses to show up. Neither has. Atlanta's best day is 13. Green Bay's is 22. Both offenses are projected into the teens and twenties, and we're on the low side of that projection, not the high side.
Our call: Atlanta Falcons 19, Green Bay Packers 26. Best bet, Atlanta +7. Under 44.5. The single thing most likely to break it is the thing that built the number in the first place. If Atlanta's offense repeats Carolina, no amount of Green Bay inefficiency keeps this inside the spread.
