NFL Week 7 upset watch: Giants-Texans and Falcons-49ers lead a slate of live underdogs
The Week 7 upset board reads like a formality. Houston and San Francisco get their wins handed to them in advance, with the Giants and Falcons filed under "would be fun." I'm not buying the formality. One of those two favorites loses this week.
Start with the New York Giants, because JJ McCarthy at quarterback changes what a Houston Texans defense has to prepare for. McCarthy moves, and a quarterback who moves makes a favorite defend every blade of grass instead of pinning its ears back. My read on the Giants' plan: get McCarthy outside the pocket on early downs, keep the Houston pass rush guessing, and refuse to let the game become a 40-dropback audition. Would I pick New York outright? No. I'll take McCarthy keeping it close and Houston surviving, but that's a sweat the Texans didn't sign up for.
Atlanta is the better upset bet of the two, and it isn't close. San Francisco wins with structure, and structure is exactly what a loose, nothing-to-lose opponent disrupts first. The Falcons are the dog I'd actually play. If San Francisco wins comfortably, I'll wear it.
The same report tags Baltimore and Denver as favorites at risk, and that's the honest read of this slate. The top of the board is thinner than the standings suggest, and Week 7 is where thin boards crack.
Now the two features, which are the same story wearing different uniforms. Chicago's quarterback collecting famous friends across the city's other sports is filed as fluff. It isn't. In a market that audits a quarterback's every Sunday, a social circle that has nothing to do with football is insulation, a pressure valve he can't get from a coordinator. The risk is timing, not character. The first time the offense stalls, that same circle becomes evidence of divided attention. That's unfair and it's coming anyway. My expectation: it helps Caleb Williams now and gets weaponized during his first real skid.
In New England, Rhamondre Stevenson gets the "things you don't know" treatment, which usually means the most important player is the one whose job is hardest to see. Stevenson's value lives in protection and in the carries nobody clips for a highlight reel. I'd argue he's the hinge of that Patriots offense: with him on the field on third down, New England can stay multiple; without him, everything narrows. I expect his snap count, not his rushing total, to be the number that decides whether the Patriots' season stays interesting into December.
Here's the board I'll sign: Atlanta beats San Francisco, McCarthy keeps the Giants in it but doesn't finish the job, and the league's most interesting stories this week aren't on the scoreboard. They're in who's protected and who's comfortable. Take the Falcons. That's the one I'll be judged on.