The number catches you first. Ninth. Kansas City Chiefs. In ESPN's Football Power Index preseason projection for the 2026 NFL season, the two-time defending AFC champions sit at No. 9 overall. It's their lowest ranking since 2018.
That was before Patrick Mahomes became Patrick Mahomes. Before the Super Bowl LIV run. Before three trips to the Lombardi Trophy in four years. Before this franchise's identity became synonymous with January football.
And yet, here we are.
The FPI, ESPN's advanced analytic projection system, didn't randomly decide to slight the Chiefs. It crunched the numbers, weighed the departures, the retirements, coaching continuity, and injury recovery timelines. It spat out a ranking that signals the gap between Kansas City and the NFL's elite has narrowed.
Before anyone panics--and you know the doubters are already typing--a ninth-place FPI projection does not mean a losing season. It simply indicates the model sees eight teams with a better expected win total, stronger projected rosters, or both. Since 2018, the Chiefs have been a perennial top-three FPI team. This drop is notable because it means the margin for error is shrinking.
Why the drop?
Start with roster turnover. That's always the first place to look.
The 2025 season ended with Mahomes playing hurt behind a beat-up offensive line, and a receiving corps that leaned heavily on Xavier Worthy and a 36-year-old Travis Kelce as its primary weapons. Kelce remains on the roster for his age-37 season, but he's no longer the dominant force who could single-handedly bend a defense. His 2025 line--76 receptions for 851 yards and five touchdowns--was his lowest yardage since his second NFL season in 2015. The Chiefs sound confident publicly, but the analytic model sees a tight end group led by Kelce, Noah Gray, and Jared Wiley with no proven secondary pass-catching threat at the position.
The offensive line situation adds to the uncertainty. Left tackle remains an open competition among Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia, and 2025 draft pick Josh Simmons. Jaylon Moore was signed in free agency, but he's not a sure bet as a blindside protector. The interior line is stable with Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, but the tackle spots carry significant question marks. Analytical models penalize uncertainty at the tackle positions more heavily than most others.
Then there's the offense itself. Matt Nagy is no longer the play caller. Eric Bieniemy has returned as offensive coordinator, resuming a role he had early in the Mahomes era during the Tyreek Hill years. Bieniemy's first stint was highly productive, but the offense has evolved since then. The personnel has changed, the playbook has shifted, and reintegration takes time. Models don't expect a seamless handoff immediately.
The defense: a new page
The defensive line has long been a hallmark of Steve Spagnuolo's defenses, but last season it seemed one piece short. Chris Jones remains the anchor, the gravitational force making everything work. Behind him, depth was thin. Felix Anudike-Uzomah showed flashes but didn't dominate consistently.
The Chiefs invested draft capital to build depth on the defensive front. In 2025, they selected Omarr Norman-Lott in the third round; this year, they took R Mason Thomas, an edge rusher from Oklahoma, in the second round, and Peter Woods, a defensive tackle from Clemson, with the 29th overall pick in the first round of the recent draft.
Linebacker Drue Tranquill praised Woods' addition, highlighting his tenacity and explosive get-off. Defensive end George Karlaftis echoed optimism about the young front, noting rookies are "like sponges" and being coached hard. However, the analytic model discounts rookie and young player projections due to the unpredictable nature of player development. Karlaftis acknowledged the gap from rookie to second-year performance and expects growth from Mason Thomas and others. This uncertainty weighs on the overall defensive projection.
Cap space challenges
Paying a quarterback like Mahomes has squeezed the salary cap for years. According to Over the Cap, the Chiefs enter the summer with approximately $12.49 million in cap space and $9.78 million in dead money. That limited room constrains the ability to make splashy veteran additions as training camp approaches.
General Manager Brett Veach has earned a reputation for maximizing value through creative contract restructures and savvy veteran pickups. Still, the roster has open holes.
Wide receiver depth behind Rashee Rice is a question. Rice played only eight games in 2025 but still caught 53 passes for 571 yards and five touchdowns. The rest of the receiving room--Worthy, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Royals, and rookie Cyrus Allen--have flashes but no proven No. 2 receiver to consistently command defensive attention.
The cornerback room is evolving as well. L'Jarius Sneed's departure left a spot open. Trent McDuffie remains a top-tier boundary corner. The Chiefs signed Kristian Fulton and Kader Kohou in free agency and drafted Mansoor Delane and Jadon Canady to add young talent. Despite that, the uncertainty at key positions tempers projections.
What ninth place really means
Ranking ninth in FPI is not a disaster. It is not a rebuilding year. But it marks the first time since 2018 that a Mahomes-led Chiefs team has entered the season outside the top tier of analytic projections.
In 2018, Mahomes was a 22-year-old with only one start under his belt, and the Chiefs finished 12-4 before losing the AFC Championship in overtime.
A more relevant comparison is last season's preseason FPI. Teams like Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Buffalo were ranked ahead of Kansas City--yet the Chiefs went on to win Super Bowl LVIII. Models can err, but their value lies in highlighting structural risks that narrative-driven analysis might overlook.
Andy Reid is still the head coach, Steve Spagnuolo still schemes exotic pressures, and Mahomes can make any throw from any platform. That core makes Kansas City a perennial threat.
But the path to another Super Bowl is tougher. The AFC West is deeper. Houston looks legit. Cincinnati is healthier. Buffalo remains a juggernaut. The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh and added weapons. Conference realignment means a more challenging schedule.
The model sees all this and synthesizes the uncertainty, landing on ninth.
The human side
Picture the Chiefs' OTAs last week: Mahomes throwing to a receiving group with multiple new faces; Kelce running crisp routes despite his age; rookies like Woods and Delane getting their first NFL reps.
Tranquill described the locker room vibe as hungry and competitive. Head coach Andy Reid tempered optimism with pragmatism, noting one of the better turnouts they've seen.
The tension of June is clear: good participation, eager rookies, real competition--but none of it guarantees success until the pads go on in training camp and games begin.
FPI is a number, not a verdict. It's a starting point, not a finish line.
The Chiefs have been doubted before. They won Super Bowl LVII as underdogs against the Eagles and completed a playoff gauntlet in Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. The margin for error is thinner now--the roster is younger and less proven, the cap is tighter, the offense sees coordinator changes, and the competition is stronger.
But the quarterback remains Patrick Mahomes; the head coach is still Andy Reid. The 2026 season has not started yet.
Ninth place in June is a modest reprieve of reality. The ranking will move when games are played--the question is which direction it goes.