New York Jets at Chicago Bears, Week 4, Soldier Field, 1 p.m. local.
Soldier Field has hosted two Bears games this season and produced two entirely different football teams: a 3-9 loss to Minnesota and a 27-7 win over Philadelphia. That spread is why Chicago is laying only a field goal, and it's also why I'll still pay it.
The Bears are 2-1 with 89 points for, 53 against, plus-36. Take that differential apart and one afternoon does most of the heavy lifting: 59-37 at Carolina in Week 1. Chicago hasn't been bad since. The 27-7 win over Philadelphia is both the more recent and the more relevant result, because it came at the same stadium where the Minnesota dud happened.
New York is 1-2: 64 points for, 61 against, plus-3. One complete game, a 23-10 win at Tennessee, then a 17-20 loss to Green Bay at home and a 24-31 loss at Detroit. The Jets have not been blown out. They also haven't beaten anyone since the opener, and the two defenses that just handled them are the two best they've seen.
The market has this priced about right. Chicago is -3 with a total of 42.5 and a moneyline of Bears -155 / Jets +130 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28). Three is the smallest number a home favorite can be asked to lay, and that moneyline says the same thing the number does: favored, not trusted. Our published call is Bears -3 with the over, projected at New York Jets 20, Chicago Bears 23.
Here's the case for the field goal. The Jets' defense has surrendered 20 and 31 in its last two games, and now it draws a Chicago offense that has put up 89 points in three weeks, with a 27-point home outing already on tape. The Bears don't need to be the Carolina version to win by more than a field goal at home. They need to be competent. New York's points have come against Tennessee, and its margin for error shrinks the moment it has to play from behind on the road.
Here's the case for the over. 42.5 is not a demanding number for a game involving an offense that has scored 89 and a defense that has allowed 61. New York's own 24-point day in Detroit is the template: the Jets can move it enough to hold up their end, and Chicago's secondary hasn't shown it can slam a door. Our projection clears the total.
The matchup that decides this is Chicago's home offense against a Jets defense that has now given up real points in consecutive weeks. If the Bears get the Philadelphia version of that unit, three points is cheap and the over is safe. If they get the Minnesota version, three points is a trap and the total is a dead number.
Our call stands: Chicago 23, New York 20, Bears -3, over 42.5. The single thing most likely to break it is a Jets team that has yet to be run out of a building this season showing up at Soldier Field and turning a low total into a rock fight. If the Bears' home offense is the Minnesota edition, I'm wrong, and I'll know it before halftime.
