Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen Is a Hollywood Star, and the Rushing Numbers Are Why
ESPN published a feature on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen as a star on and off the field, Hollywood and endorsements included. Predictable subject. The interesting question is why the crossover works, and the answer is in the box score, not the boardroom.
Allen's most recent line: 12-of-19 for 210 yards, one touchdown, one interception, a 93.0 QBR and a 96.4 rating. Now the other column. Ten carries, 121 yards, 12.1 per attempt, a long of 22, a rushing score. A quarterback who throws 19 times and runs for 121 yards is a highlight engine, and highlight engines are what endorsement money buys. My read on the Buffalo offense: it is built to keep Allen's arm volume low and his legs live, which is exactly why the off-field profile keeps growing. The celebrity is downstream of the designed runs.
James Cook III did the heavy lifting for Buffalo with 25 carries, 111 yards and two touchdowns at 4.4 per carry. He also fumbled twice and lost one, and that is the only thing standing between him and an uncontested every-down job. Ray Davis got 2 carries for 2 yards. The gap between 25 and 2 is the entire Bills backfield conversation, and if Cook keeps putting the ball on the ground, Buffalo has a decision it would rather not make.
Where the targets went matters more than the total. Khalil Shakir caught 3 for 80 with a 57-yard long. Ty Johnson caught 4 for 72 with a 40-yard long. Dalton Kincaid saw 2 targets and caught one for 7 yards. Dawson Knox saw 3 and caught one for 6. Keon Coleman's lone catch was a 7-yard score, and Skyler Bell was targeted twice and caught nothing. I expect the Buffalo tight end room to stay decorative in this offense. Kincaid is the one to watch: 2 targets in a game the Bills mostly settled on the ground is not a role, it is a cameo.
Cole Bishop's 11 tackles lead a Buffalo defensive sheet that should worry the Bills more than it reassures them. Christian Benford had 10, Dorian Williams 9, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Davison Igbinosun 7 apiece. When the back seven makes every tackle, the front is not winning. DeWayne Carter's sack and tackle for loss were the lone disruption up front. Matthew Stafford went 40-of-54 for 383 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on the other side of it. Letting a quarterback throw 54 times and complete 40 is not a game plan, it is a symptom, and I expect it to be the loudest item on Buffalo's film review.
Tyler Bass went 3-for-3 on field goals with a 49-yard long and 11 points, and missed an extra point. Buffalo will file that under noise. I file it under January, because that is when a missed extra point stops being trivia. Ray Davis returned 3 kicks for 114 yards, a 38.0 average with a 70-yard long. Greg Dortch added 4 returns for 105 yards plus a 14-yard punt return, and Tommy Doman Jr. punted once for 52 yards and pinned it inside the 20. The Buffalo return game is real yardage at a discount, and it is the cheapest offense the Bills will get all season.
My verdict: Allen's Hollywood story is genuine, and it is a story about running, not throwing. The Buffalo offense is not one that can ask him for 40 attempts, and the Bills defense that let an opponent complete 40 passes cannot afford to hand back a possession. A 19-attempt quarterback with 10 designed carries is sustainable in October and a question mark in January. If Kincaid's target share doubles over the next month while the pass defense tightens up, I'm wrong. I don't expect it.
