Baltimore won 30-23 in overtime on a 1-yard Tyler Huntley keeper at 2:57 of the fifth quarter, Tyler Loop's extra point good, the game ending at 2:05. The seven-point margin is the least useful thing in the box score. The Falcons lost this game with the bigger passing yardage total and the better yards-per-attempt figure, and that gap between yardage and points is what Atlanta's 2-3 record actually is.
Start with the quarterbacks, because the raw lines will mislead you. Michael Penix Jr. went 19 of 32 for 240 yards, 7.5 per attempt, one touchdown, no interceptions. His passer rating was 93.2. His adjusted QBR was 58.5. Tyler Huntley went 24 of 32 for 201 yards, 6.3 per attempt, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a 111.6 rating and a 78.7 adjusted QBR. Huntley threw for less and was the better quarterback on every measure that accounts for situation. Both lines took three sacks. Atlanta's cost 17 yards, Baltimore's 16, which is the closest thing to a wash in the game.
Now the Atlanta skill players, who produced without finishing. Drake London caught 7 of 11 targets for 118 yards, 16.9 a catch, long of 25, no touchdowns. Bijan Robinson carried 17 times for 86 yards, 5.1 a carry, long of 38, no touchdowns. The two players who moved the ball most for the Falcons never crossed the goal line. Penix's one touchdown pass was the entire scoring contribution from the passing game, and Baltimore's defense spent the afternoon making Atlanta earn it in 20-yard increments.
Baltimore's offense was not good between the twenties either. Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 102 yards at 4.3 a carry with no rushing touchdowns, and his scoring play was an 18-yard reception. Huntley added 6 carries for 20 yards and the winner. The hidden number is Justice Hill: 4 carries, 73 yards, 18.3 per attempt, long of 47. Zay Flowers caught 8 of 9 targets for 53 yards. Rashod Bateman caught 5 of 6 for 62, long of 20. That is a passing game running through volume and short throws, not downfield wins.
What actually decided it was the takeaway. Kyle Hamilton intercepted Penix and returned it 2 yards, Malaki Starks made 10 tackles with 2 for loss, and Tavius Robinson and Trenton Simpson each recorded a sack. Mark Andrews fumbled and lost it, giving Atlanta a short field it could not convert. The Falcons' defense held up better than the final score implies; Baltimore's offense gave it chances to lose.
My read: Atlanta's problem is not Penix's arm, it's that 240 passing yards and 86 rushing yards produced 23 points and a loss. That is a red-zone and situational offense, and a 58.5 adjusted QBR in a game where the other guy posted 78.7 tells you which quarterback the numbers trust when the field compresses. Baltimore is 4-1, and I don't buy it as a 4-1 offense. A 6.3 yards-per-attempt passing game with Henry averaging 4.3 is survivable against a team that can't score touchdowns. It won't be against one that can, and the Ravens will find that out before the schedule gets friendly.
