The popular narrative says the Raiders are still digging out of a hole. Their 2025 season ended with a thud. A rookie quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, is unproven. The offensive line has a new center in Trey Zuhn III, a rookie himself. The defense lost pieces. The betting markets see it: FanDuel lists Las Vegas at +12500 to win the Super Bowl right now. That is not a typo.
Maxx Crosby does not see it that way.
The star defensive end, recovering from offseason knee surgery, told reporters he is close to returning to practice. That alone is a positive data point for a defense that has needed every ounce of his production. But Crosby went further. He expressed genuine optimism about what the Raiders can become in 2026.
The instant reaction is to chalk it up to training-camp talk. Every player says the right thing in June. But Crosby is not every player. He has never been a company-man mouthpiece. When this team has been bad, he has said so. When the effort was lacking, he called it out. That makes his current bullishness worth listening to.
Here is the overlooked angle: Crosby sees something functional in this roster that the outside world is missing.
The consensus take is that the Raiders are in a bridge year. They used the No. 1 overall pick on Mendoza, a quarterback who threw for Indiana but has never taken an NFL snap. They signed Kirk Cousins to a veteran deal, but at 37 years old, he is a placeholder, not a franchise answer. The defense has Kwity Paye joining the edge rotation opposite Crosby, and Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker at linebacker -- both talented, but neither has proven he can anchor a playoff unit.
The betting lines reflect that skepticism. The Super Bowl odds at +15000 on DraftKings and +12500 on FanDuel tell you the market sees a team in the 6-to-8 win range. Maybe a fringe playoff contender in a weak division. Probably not a real threat.
Crosby is essentially arguing the market is wrong.
Why would he believe that? Start with the defensive structure. A defensive line with Crosby and Paye on the edges, backed by a linebacker corps that includes Dean, Walker, and Cody Lindenberg, has real snap-to-snap juice. Rob Leonard, now the defensive coordinator entering his second season, has a year of install under his belt. That continuity matters. Crosby does not say it directly, but his confidence suggests the scheme fit is clicking.
Then look at the offense. The conventional take says Mendoza is raw. But offensive coordinator Andrew Janocko offered a different read recently: "I think as they grow their knowledge base, you see them play faster." That is a direct endorsement of Mendoza's trajectory. Janocko also said, "We're using every single minute. We try to make sure that every single minute counts." That is a culture statement, not a scouting report. It matters because Crosby has always talked about culture as a prerequisite for winning in Las Vegas. He wants to see the operation running hot. Janocko is describing exactly that.
Klint Kubiak, the head coach, has been aggressive about deploying multiple looks. He said, "We're very multiple. We've got a lot of things going on, so we can pretty much do anything we want to do at any time." That is schematic flexibility that protects a young quarterback. If the offensive line holds up -- and adding Zuhn at center, plus a full season of Jackson Powers-Johnson at guard, could stabilize the interior -- the Raiders have enough weapons. Brock Bowers, coming off a 680-yard, seven-touchdown season in 2025, is a mismatch weapon from the tight end spot. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 975 yards as a rookie in 2025. That is a foundation.
The contrarian read is not that the Raiders are about to vault into the AFC elite. It is that the gap between the consensus (bad team, rebuilding) and the reality (competitive team, ascending) is wider than people think. Crosby's knee is almost healthy. The offense has a plan. The defense has talent. The coaching staff has clarity.
One quote from Kubiak sticks out: "There's no complacency in the room, and all the guys know that, and that's what we're out here to do." That kind of edge matters when a team is trying to change its reputation. Crosby has always played with a chip. Now the rest of the room is starting to match his energy.
The Super Bowl odds will not move because Maxx Crosby says he feels good. But the sharpest argument he is making is not about this week or next week. It is about the trajectory. If Mendoza develops, if the offensive line gels, if the defense stays healthy -- that is a lot of ifs, but it is also the shape of a real football team.
Crosby returning to practice is the first domino. The rest of the offseason will tell us whether his optimism is foresight or hope.
For now, take the side of the guy who has never been afraid to tell the truth, even when it hurts.