Trevor Sikkema's surge call on Tetairoa McMillan isn't a feel-good endorsement — it's a volume projection. After an 1,014-yard, seven-touchdown rookie year that came on just a 21% target share, McMillan is being projected near 30% this season. That would make Bryce Young's No. 1 option one of the highest-target wide receivers in football, and it changes how fantasy managers should treat every Carolina passing-game decision.
The eye test already said 'alpha'; the target sheet said 'not yet.'
Sikkema: "It felt as though he was the passing offense for the Carolina Panthers last year."
That's the tell. McMillan produced like a team's entire passing game while being fed like a good No. 1, not a target hog. His 70 catches, 1,014 yards, and seven touchdowns came with room to spare. The subtext is that there is untapped volume, not just efficiency, in his profile. A 30% share with the same per-target efficiency doesn't just nudge his numbers — it catapults them.
Fantasy read: In PPR, lock in McMillan as a WR1. If he's not being drafted there yet, he will be after Week 1. His rookie floor was already high; the projection points to a target-volume spike that few receivers in the league can match.
The 'close to 30' number is the whole argument.
Sikkema: "I think that number is close to 30 this year."
Going from 21% to 30% is a roughly 43% increase in target share. Even if Carolina's total pass attempts stay flat, McMillan is looking at significantly more chances than he saw as a rookie. Sikkema followed with the kicker: "this year's numbers could potentially dwarf it" — meaning the leap is about opportunity, not touchdown luck.
Fantasy/betting read: Treat McMillan as the anchor of Panthers stacks. When DFS pricing comes out, his salary will be built on last year's 21% usage; the projection says pay up and don't get cute. For betting markets, McMillan's receiving yards and anytime touchdown props should be attacked whenever the book prices him as an ordinary No. 1 instead of a 30% target hog.
The depth chart hands the targets back to McMillan.
Sikkema didn't need to name a No. 2 receiver, because Carolina doesn't have one. The next-most productive returning wideouts, Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, combined for 68 catches last season. Ja'Tavion Sanders led returning tight ends with just 29 grabs, and Chuba Hubbard's 30 catches don't threaten a wide receiver's target ceiling. Every realistic path to production in this offense runs through McMillan. That is the structure behind a ~30% target share.
Watch: Week 1 target distribution. If McMillan opens around 30% with no other pass-catcher above 20%, Sikkema's number is already in play — and the Panthers' +2.5 spread on DraftKings implies a competitive game script where Young is throwing late. That is the exact environment that turns an alpha receiver projection into fantasy points.