Packers at Buccaneers: Green Bay Lays 3.5 on the Road Against a Winless Team
Green Bay has allowed 91 points in three games and is laying 3.5 on the road against a team that hasn't won yet. That's the story of this one.
Green Bay, 1-2
Lost at Minnesota 22-39. Won at the Jets 20-17. Lost at home to Atlanta 14-35. Fifty-six points scored, 91 allowed, minus-35 differential. The lone win required holding off the Jets, and the defense has been the problem in both defeats.
Tampa Bay, 0-3
Lost at Cincinnati 27-33. Lost to Cleveland 19-23. Lost to Minnesota 16-23. Sixty-two points scored, 79 allowed, minus-17 differential. Three losses, each decided by a single score, which is why a winless team is sitting at +154 on the moneyline instead of something longer.
The price
Green Bay Packers -3.5, total 39.5, moneyline Tampa Bay Buccaneers +154 / Green Bay Packers -185 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28). A total of 39.5 in a game involving a defense that has surrendered 91 points is the market saying it doesn't trust either offense to finish drives.
What decides it
Tampa Bay's offense against Green Bay's defense. The Buccaneers have scored 27, 19 and 16. The Packers have allowed 39, 17 and 35. One of those three defensive outings was acceptable, and it came against the Jets. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been within a score in every game they've played, at home and on the road, and now they get the friendliest matchup their offense has seen.
Sunday, 1:00 local, Raymond James Stadium.
Why the under is the stronger half
Our projection is Green Bay Packers 22, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18. It's a projection, not a result, and Under 39.5 is the piece of it I'd hold hardest. To beat that total, somebody has to get into the high 20s or better. The best either offense has managed so far is Tampa Bay's 27 at Cincinnati. Green Bay hasn't been close to that, and the Packers' own scoring has come in games where the defense was already behind.
The Buccaneers are built for exactly this kind of afternoon: close, low, decided in the last eight minutes. That's what 16-23 and 19-23 look like. Our number fits the shape of both teams' seasons.
The risk to our own call
The side, not the total. Tampa Bay has lost three games by a single score, plays at home, and draws a Packers defense that has allowed 39 and again 35. If the Buccaneers get to 24, our projected 22-18 flips and the under likely goes with it. The +154 is not a dead number. It's just not the number I'd take.
Verdict
Green Bay 22, Tampa Bay 18, and under 39.5. I'll take the Packers laying 3.5 because I have to pick a side in this one, and the reason is simple: I think the Buccaneers are exactly what their record says they are. Good enough to stay close. Not good enough to close. Take the total first, the side second, and don't overthink a game the market has already told you will be ugly.
