NFL Week 4 2026 Predictions: Picks for All 16 Games
Sixteen games, and the board is doing most of the talking. The biggest spread of the week is Baltimore laying 11.5 to Tennessee. The smallest total is 38.5 for Pittsburgh at Cleveland, the oldest rivalry on the slate and still the one nobody expects to be fun. The biggest total is 51.5 for Jacksonville at Cincinnati, which is the market admitting it can't separate two teams it expects to score all day.
Every price below is from ESPN, captured Monday, Sept. 28. Early-week numbers move, and a few of these will look different by Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
The line: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, total 38.5, moneyline Cleveland Browns +120 / Pittsburgh Steelers -142 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Lowest total on the board. The market is saying neither offense is trusted and the game gets settled in the teens. A divisional road favorite laying under a field goal in a game this small is no side I want, so I'm playing the number underneath. Best bet: Under 38.5 Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cleveland Browns 18 Total: Under 38.5
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
The line: Indianapolis Colts -3, total 46.5, moneyline Washington Commanders +140 / Indianapolis Colts -166 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: A full field goal on the road is the market granting real separation, not a nudge. I'm not buying it. Washington at home getting three with a mid-40s total is the side I'd rather hold, and +140 on the moneyline pays better than the spread does anyway. Best bet: Washington Commanders +3 Score: Indianapolis Colts 25, Washington Commanders 22 Total: Under 46.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
The line: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, total 51.5, moneyline Cincinnati Bengals -135 / Jacksonville Jaguars +114 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Highest total of the week at 51.5, spread of just 2.5. That combination is the market saying shootout between two teams it can't rank. When the total is this high and the margin this thin, I'd rather play the points than pick a winner. Best bet: Over 51.5 Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Cincinnati Bengals 27 Total: Over 51.5
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
The line: Houston Texans -2.5, total 47.5, moneyline Houston Texans -135 / Dallas Cowboys +114 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Houston laying 2.5 at home in an in-state game. The implied score is 25-22 and I think the actual gap is wider than a field goal. Lay the short number. Best bet: Houston Texans -2.5 Score: Dallas Cowboys 22, Houston Texans 25 Total: Under 47.5
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
The line: Arizona Cardinals -1.5, total 44.5, moneyline New York Giants -110 / Arizona Cardinals -110 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Look at the moneyline. Minus 110 both ways, a coin flip, and then the market asks Arizona to win by more than a point on the road. Those two things can't both be right. Give me the free point and a half with the home team. Best bet: New York Giants +1.5 Score: Arizona Cardinals 23, New York Giants 22 Total: Over 44.5
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
The line: Los Angeles Rams -1.5, total 46.5, moneyline Philadelphia Eagles +110 / Los Angeles Rams -130 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: The Rams are a road favorite by 1.5 in Philadelphia, which is a compliment to Los Angeles and a small knock on the Eagles. I'll take the other side. A point and a half at home in a 46.5 game is a thin margin, and +110 on the moneyline is live. Best bet: Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 Score: Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 22 Total: Under 46.5
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The line: Green Bay Packers -3.5, total 39.5, moneyline Tampa Bay Buccaneers +154 / Green Bay Packers -185 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Green Bay laying 3.5 with a total of 39.5 means the market sees roughly a 22-18 game. That's two scores and a lot of punting. I'd rather be underneath than trust either offense to build a cushion. Best bet: Under 39.5 Score: Green Bay Packers 22, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 Total: Under 39.5
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
The line: Baltimore Ravens -11.5, total 43.5, moneyline Baltimore Ravens -700 / Tennessee Titans +500 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Double-digit spreads are rare on an NFL board, and 11.5 is the biggest number of this week. The +500 on Tennessee tells you what the market thinks. Taking the points anyway. Covering a number this large requires four flawless quarters, and the Titans only need a couple of plays to ruin it. Best bet: Tennessee Titans +11.5 Score: Tennessee Titans 16, Baltimore Ravens 28 Total: Over 43.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
The line: Buffalo Bills -7, total 48.5, moneyline Buffalo Bills -310 / New England Patriots +250 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Seven is right at the edge of what I'll lay, and divisional familiarity argues for the dog. I'm laying it anyway. At home, with a 48.5 total, Buffalo is the better roster and New England has to score with the Bills to stay inside this. Best bet: Buffalo Bills -7 Score: New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 28 Total: Over 48.5
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
The line: Chicago Bears -3, total 42.5, moneyline Chicago Bears -155 / New York Jets +130 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Chicago laying a field goal at home against a Jets team the market prices at +130. Three is the mildest endorsement a home favorite can get, and 42.5 isn't asking much of either offense. It's a fair price and I'll pay it. Best bet: Chicago Bears -3 Score: New York Jets 20, Chicago Bears 23 Total: Over 42.5
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
The line: Minnesota Vikings -10, total 39.5, moneyline Minnesota Vikings -600 / Miami Dolphins +440 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Second-biggest spread of the week, second-lowest total, and that pairing says Minnesota wins comfortably in a game nobody scores in. Miami at +440 is the market's version of a formality. Lay the ten and take the under. Best bet: Minnesota Vikings -10 Score: Miami Dolphins 15, Minnesota Vikings 25 Total: Under 39.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
The line: Seattle Seahawks -6.5, total 43.5, moneyline Seattle Seahawks -325 / Los Angeles Chargers +260 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Seattle laying 6.5 with a total of 43.5 leaves the Chargers around 18 points to work with. That's a narrow window: Los Angeles has to score in the 20s on the road to stay inside this, and I don't think it does. Best bet: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 Score: Los Angeles Chargers 18, Seattle Seahawks 25 Total: Under 43.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
The line: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5, total 47.5, moneyline Las Vegas Raiders +190 / Kansas City Chiefs -230 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Kansas City is the biggest road favorite of the week at 5.5, and the market is still hanging 47.5 on the game. Those two numbers don't quite agree. If the Chiefs win by more than a score in Las Vegas, the Raiders aren't contributing much to that total. Best bet: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 Score: Kansas City Chiefs 26, Las Vegas Raiders 21 Total: Under 47.5
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
The line: San Francisco 49ers -3, total 46.5, moneyline San Francisco 49ers -166 / Denver Broncos +140 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: A field goal at home, total 46.5, implied score 25-22. The market expects a one-score game that the 49ers win. I'll take the field goal and the over together, because both calls want the same thing: enough possessions for San Francisco to build a real margin. Best bet: San Francisco 49ers -3 Score: Denver Broncos 22, San Francisco 49ers 25 Total: Over 46.5
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
The line: Detroit Lions -3.5, total 50.5, moneyline Carolina Panthers +140 / Detroit Lions -166 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: Second-highest total on the board at 50.5 with Detroit laying 3.5 means the market expects Carolina to score in the mid-20s and still lose by more than a field goal. That's a real gap, and I think it's the right one. Lay it. Best bet: Detroit Lions -3.5 Score: Detroit Lions 27, Carolina Panthers 24 Total: Over 50.5
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The line: New Orleans Saints -2.5, total 48.5, moneyline New Orleans Saints -155 / Atlanta Falcons +130 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28) The read: New Orleans by 2.5 at home in a divisional game with a 48.5 total. The number is small enough that I'd rather take the favorite than the points, and the total says the game climbs into the high 40s. Both picks are the same pick: a 26-23 Saints win. Best bet: New Orleans Saints -2.5 Score: Atlanta Falcons 23, New Orleans Saints 26 Total: Over 48.5
I'm most exposed on three calls: Titans +11.5, Giants +1.5, Eagles +1.5. Two home dogs taking a point and a half and a double-digit dog in Baltimore. If the Ravens win by two touchdowns and both the Rams and Cardinals handle their road spots, this is a losing card, and the flaw would be mine: treating every short spread as a coin flip when the market may simply know more about the road teams. My strongest call is the Under in Pittsburgh at 38.5. It's the lowest number on the board, in the oldest rivalry on the slate, and the Steelers and Browns will settle it in the teens. If that game turns into a track meet, I've misread the whole week.
