NFL power rankings, built on results through October 5. The order is computed from results; the notes explain it.
Four weeks in and the league has split cleanly: Kansas City, San Francisco and Minnesota are all 4-0, while the Chargers, Dolphins and Texans have yet to win. New Orleans fell nine places, Cincinnati and Philadelphia seven apiece, and several teams in the top half still have not beaten anyone with a winning record. Being undefeated in September tells you little until somebody does.
1. Kansas City Chiefs — 4-0 (up 1)
Kansas City is 4-0 with wins over Las Vegas (3-1) and Miami, two of those four games decided by one score and both won. They score 29.5 a game and allow 19.2, and they put up 20 in the fourth quarter to put away the Raiders. The offence is the engine; the two one-score wins are the part that keeps this from feeling settled.
2. San Francisco 49ers — 4-0 (up 1)
San Francisco is 4-0, scoring 30.5 points a game, second in the league, and allowing 16.0, third. They beat Arizona 36-30 and Denver, who are 2-2, but no win has come against a team with a winning record, and the schedule has been soft. The numbers say this team is complete; the opposition has not said anything back.
3. Minnesota Vikings — 4-0 (down 2)
Minnesota is 4-0, and the record is built on a defence that gives up 12.8 points a game, fewer than any team in the league. The Vikings have beaten Chicago (3-1), their best win, though they have done it against one of the softer schedules and their own offence is scoring 21.5, 18th. The defence is carrying this team; the offence has to catch up.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars — 3-1 (up 2)
Jacksonville has beaten Cleveland (3-1) and Cincinnati (2-2), and no game has been decided by one score. The defense allows 13.2 points a game, second in the league, while the offense scores 26.0, 12th. The week-to-week swings are real, and until the offense steadies, the defense is carrying this team.
5. Chicago Bears — 3-1 (up 2)
Chicago is 3-1 after beating Philadelphia 27-7 and the Jets 23-12, neither a one-score game. The defense allows 16.2 points a game, fourth in the league, and the offense scores 28.0, ninth. But every win has come against a losing side, and the only winning-record opponent beat them. The defense is real; the wins have not yet proved they can handle a winning team.
6. Las Vegas Raiders — 3-1 (down 1)
Las Vegas is 3-1, but every win has come against a losing side; they beat New Orleans (1-3) and have not yet beaten a team with a winning record. Their one loss was 27-30 to Kansas City after leading through three quarters. The offence is scoring 28.8 points a game, eighth in the league, but the record is ahead of the proof.
7. Seattle Seahawks — 3-1 (up 1)
Seattle is 3-1 behind a defence allowing 18.2 points a game, fifth-fewest in the league, and an offence scoring 26.2. The trouble is who they have beaten: every win has come against a losing side, with Arizona at 1-3 the best of them. The record says more about the schedule than about this team.
8. Buffalo Bills — 3-1 (down 4)
Buffalo is 3-1, scoring 31.8 points a game, most in the league, but allowing 26.8, 25th. They have not beaten a team with a winning record, and they lost their only one-score game to New England (2-2). The offence is elite; the defence and soft schedule explain the rest.
9. Baltimore Ravens — 3-1 (up 1)
Baltimore is 3-1, scoring 29 a game (seventh) while allowing 24 (19th). They have not beaten a team with a winning record; their best win is over Dallas (2-2). Against Tennessee they led 24-7 at half and then did not score again. The offense is carrying them, but this record is built on weaker opponents.
10. Cleveland Browns — 3-1 (up 4)
Cleveland is 3-1, but every win has come against a losing side, and the Browns have not beaten a team with a winning record. They edged Carolina 21-18 and Pittsburgh 27-24, with two of four games decided by one score. The offense scores 20.2 a game, 22nd in the league. This is a team winning the games it should, but it has not shown it can beat a winner.
11. New York Giants — 3-1 (up 4)
New York is 3-1 on the back of a defence allowing 19.8 points a game, eighth in the league. The offence scores only 20.5, 21st, and every win has come against a losing side — Arizona is 1-3 — while the lone loss, to the Rams, was by a wide margin. A soft schedule and a thin offence mean the defence is carrying this record.
12. Los Angeles Rams — 2-2 (up 5)
Los Angeles led Denver 16-0 at half-time and lost 26-30, then trailed Philadelphia 10-20 at half-time and won 24-20. They own a quality win over the Giants (3-1), and their defense allows 20.8 points a game, ninth in the league. The defense is holding up its end; the offense's week-to-week swings are why they sit at 12.
13. Indianapolis Colts — 2-2 (up 5)
Indianapolis is 2-2, and both wins came against losing sides — Houston and Washington. Washington is 1-3, and the Colts have not beaten a team with a winning record, losing to Kansas City, who are 4-0. They score 25.5 a game but allow 26.0, and the wins have been close. The record is built on beatable opponents; the defense is the problem.
14. Denver Broncos — 2-2 (down 2)
Denver beat Jacksonville (3-1) and lost to a 4-0 San Francisco team, so the record includes a real win. But the offence is scoring 18.5 a game, 27th in the league, and this team swings from week to week — level after three quarters against the Rams, level at half-time against the 49ers. The defence is keeping them in games; the offence is what holds them back.
15. Dallas Cowboys — 2-2 (up 5)
Dallas scores 30.5 a game, second-most in the league, but gives up 28.0, 28th, and every win has come against a losing side — the best of them Washington at 1-3. The games against winning records, including a 31-34 loss to Baltimore, went the other way. The offence is real; the defence is why this is a 2-2 team.
16. Cincinnati Bengals — 2-2 (down 7)
Cincinnati is 2-2, and every win has come against a losing side — the best of them Houston, who are 0-4. The Bengals have not beaten a team with a winning record, and their one game decided by one score went against them. They score 24.2 a game, so the offence keeps them in games; beating a winning team is the thing still missing.
17. Detroit Lions — 2-2 (down 6)
Detroit is scoring 29.8 a game, fifth in the league, and giving up 31.8, 31st. They are 2-2, with every win against a losing side — the best of them the 1-3 Jets — and they have not beaten a team with a winning record. The offense can carry them only so far; the defense is the reason they are here.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers — 2-2 (down 5)
The Steelers are 2-2 after losing 24-27 to Cleveland, and their wins have come against losing sides; they have not beaten a team with a winning record. They score 19.2 a game, 23rd, while allowing 21.8, 14th, so the defense is holding up its end. The offense has to prove it can beat a winning side.
19. Carolina Panthers — 2-2 (up 3)
Carolina scores 30.2 a game, fourth in the league, but allows 27.2, 26th. They have not beaten a team with a winning record — their best win is Detroit at 2-2 — and they lost 18-21 to Cleveland. The offense is real; the defense is the problem.
20. New England Patriots — 2-2 (up 4)
A 6-35 loss to Jacksonville and a 29-26 win over Buffalo (3-1) capture a team that swings wildly. The defense allows 19.2 a game, sixth-fewest in the league, but the offense scores 16.2, 30th. The defense is holding up its end; the offense has to give them a chance.
21. Atlanta Falcons — 2-2 (up 2)
Atlanta is 2-2, and the 45-24 win over New Orleans was never in doubt after a 24-7 half-time lead. But neither win has come against a team with a winning record, and the offence and defence are both 15th in the league. A team that can bury a losing side has not yet shown it can beat a good one.
22. Green Bay Packers — 2-2 (up 5)
Green Bay is 2-2 with wins only over losing teams, the best of them the 1-3 Jets, and a wide defeat in its lone game against a winning-record side. The Packers led Tampa Bay 17-7 after three quarters and won 17-14, one of two one-score games they have taken. At 18.2 points a game, 28th in the league, this is a record built on the soft part of the schedule.
23. Philadelphia Eagles — 2-2 (down 7)
Philadelphia is 2-2 and has not beaten a team with a winning record; its best win came against Tennessee, which is 0-4. The Eagles led the Rams 20-10 after three quarters, then gave up 14 in the fourth and lost 20-24. At 18.8 points a game, 26th in the league, the offense is the part that must change.
24. Arizona Cardinals — 1-3 (down 3)
Arizona is 1-3 and has not been in a one-score game, giving up 29.2 points a game, 29th in the league, while scoring 21.8, 17th. It has lost to every winning team it has faced, and its only win came against a losing side. The offence is respectable; the defence is the reason this team is 24th.
25. New York Jets — 1-3
The Jets are 1-3, scoring 19.0 a game (24th) while allowing 21.0 (11th). They have not beaten a team with a winning record, and their one win came against a losing side on a soft schedule. The defence is holding up its end; the offence is the reason they are here.
26. Tennessee Titans — 0-4 (up 3)
Tennessee is 0-4 and went into the fourth quarter trailing in each of its last two games, scoring 13.8 points a game, 31st in the league. The defense allows 20.8, ninth-fewest, which keeps those games within reach without ever turning them. The defense is good enough to keep them close; the offense is why they have not won.
27. Washington Commanders — 1-3 (down 1)
Washington beat Seattle (3-1) 33-31, leading 24-17 after three quarters, but that is the only win in a 1-3 start. They lost 13-30 to Indianapolis, and their defense allows 30.5 points a game, 30th in the league. The offense is middling at 22.0; the defense is the problem.
28. New Orleans Saints — 1-3 (down 9)
New Orleans is 1-3, and the reason is plain: they score 26.2 a game, 10th in the league, and allow 32.0, more than anyone. They beat Baltimore (3-1), but led Las Vegas after three quarters and gave up 13 in the fourth, then lost 24-45 to Atlanta. The offence is real; the defence turns every week into a shootout they cannot win.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 0-4 (down 1)
Tampa Bay is 0-4, and one of those four games was decided by one score — a game they lost. They have also fallen to Minnesota 16-23 and Green Bay 14-17, and are 0-2 against teams with winning records. Scoring 19 a game (24th) while allowing 24 (19th), the offence is the reason they remain winless.
30. Los Angeles Chargers — 0-4 (up 1)
The Chargers are 0-4, and they lose by more than almost anyone. They led Buffalo 13-10 after three quarters before falling 16-24, and they have not beaten a team with a winning record. At 16.8 points a game, 29th in the league, the offense is why they cannot close.
31. Miami Dolphins — 0-4 (down 1)
Miami is 0-4 because it cannot score: 11.5 points a game, fewest in the league. The defence holds up its end at 25.2 allowed and the Vikings led only 12-10 after three quarters, yet the Dolphins never led after half-time and put up nothing in the fourth quarter of either loss. Close games without a single win is the whole story, and the offence is why.
32. Houston Texans — 0-4
Houston is 0-4: they led Dallas after three quarters before losing 30-34, and trailed Indianapolis 7-13 after three quarters before falling 17-19. They score 21 a game (20th) and allow 27.2 (26th). Competitive but unable to close, they have the look of a last-place team.
