A single season has a way of compressing the league.
Twenty-two teams finished the 2025 regular season within 2.6 rating points of each other, clustered between 47.9 and 74.3. That is not parity by accident. That is a league where the difference between a playoff bye and a top-ten draft pick can live inside a single injury or a three-point loss in September.
Here is the 2026 offseason power ranking, built from the final 2025 win totals and the ratings that the 32 teams earned over last season. The numbers are the numbers. No narrative inflation. No reputation bump for teams that lost their quarterback or their schedule advantage.
Tier 1: The 74.3 Club
Three teams posted an identical rating of 74.3 -- the Seahawks, Patriots, and Broncos -- and all three won 14 games in 2025.
That is not a typo.
The Seahawks (rating 74.3, 14-3) earned the top slot, but by a fraction of a point that rounds the same way as the other two. Sam Darnold will enter 2026 as the starter under center, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp as his primary targets and Zach Charbonnet taking the lead back role. Mike Macdonald enters Year 2 as head coach. The Seahawks defense has its entire core back. A 14-win season is hard to repeat, but the floor here is not dropping off a cliff.
The Patriots (rating 74.3, 14-3) were the surprise of 2025. Mike Vrabel is now the head coach, Josh McDaniels runs the offense. Drake Maye has a true No. 1 in A.J. Brown. TreVeyon Henderson gives the backfield juice it lacked for years. The 9 draft picks from April, led by first-round tackle Caleb Lomu, reinforce a roster that already outkicked its coverage last year. The question is sustainability. New England does not have a decades-long track record of 14-win seasons. But the rating says they earned it.
The Broncos (rating 74.3, 14-3) are the most analytically sound team in the league by the numbers. Bo Nix is entering Year 2 of Sean Payton's system. Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton are the receiver tandem. Evan Engram is the tight end. J.K. Dobbins provides a veteran backfield presence. The defensive side returns Vance Joseph as coordinator. Denver has no obvious weakness in the starting 22.
FanDuel lists all three at different Super Bowl prices -- the Seahawks at +1000, the Patriots at +1600 -- but the rating system says they were equals in 2025.
Tier 2: The 69.9 Shelf
Only one team sits here: the Jaguars (rating 69.9, 13 wins).
Trevor Lawrence has Travis Hunter as his top receiver. Brian Thomas Jr. is the other starting outside weapon. Liam Coen enters his second season as head coach after taking over in 2025. The 2026 draft class added tight end Nate Boerkircher and defensive help in Albert Regis and Wesley Williams. The Jaguars have won 13 games once in the last decade, so the question is whether this is the start of a run or a one-year spike.
Tier 3: The 65.5 Quartet
The 49ers, Rams, Texans, and Bills each posted a 65.5 rating with 12 wins.
The 49ers (rating 65.5, 12-5) have Brock Purdy at quarterback and Christian McCaffrey at running back. Mike Evans and Ricky Pearsall are the receiver group. Kyle Shanahan remains the head coach. Eight draft picks replenished the defensive line and secondary. The rating says 65.5, but FanDuel lists the 49ers at +1600 to win the Super Bowl -- the same as the Patriots. The market sees upside.
The Rams (rating 65.5, 12-5) are the betting favorite on FanDuel at +700 to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford returns. Davante Adams is now the No. 1 receiver. Sean McVay is still the head coach. The Rams used just five draft picks, four of which were on offensive skill positions or the line. The market is pricing in a jump from 65.5 to something higher.
The Texans (rating 65.5, 12-5) have C.J. Stroud entering Year 3. David Montgomery joins the backfield. The offensive line added Keylan Rutledge and Febechi Nwaiwu in the draft. DeMeco Ryans is the head coach. The defense returns Matt Burke as coordinator.
The Bills (rating 65.5, 12-5) are Josh Allen's team. DJ Moore is now the top receiver after the trade. James Cook remains the primary back. Joe Brady is the head coach after the promotion. Buffalo is listed at +1000 on FanDuel alongside the Seahawks and Ravens. The rating and the market agree: this is a contender.
Tier 4: The 61.1 Triangle
Eagles, Chargers, and Bears all landed at 61.1 with 11 wins.
The Eagles (61.1) have Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith. Nick Sirianni is the head coach, Vic Fangio runs the defense. The 2026 draft added wide receiver Makai Lemon in the first round and tight end Eli Stowers.
The Chargers (61.1) got 11 wins from Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh's first season. Quentin Johnston and David Njoku are the primary pass catchers. Omarion Hampton joins the backfield. The defense lost some pieces but returns a solid core.
The Bears (61.1) are the big riser. Caleb Williams in Year 2, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III at receiver, Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet at tight end. Ben Johnson is the head coach. Seven draft picks included safety Dillon Thieneman and interior offensive line help. Chicago went from 5 wins in 2024 to 11 in 2025. The rating validates the jump.
Tier 5: The Middle Clump -- 56.7 to 47.9
The Steelers (56.7, 10 wins) land alone. Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. are the receivers. Mike McCarthy is the head coach.
Then a six-team tie at 52.3 with 9 wins: Lions, Vikings, Packers. Dan Campbell's Lions took a step back from 15 wins to 9. The Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Kyler Murray in the same offense. The Packers are Jordan Love's team with Josh Jacobs in the backfield.
Another six-way tie at 47.9 with 8 wins: Buccaneers, Colts, Panthers, Ravens, Falcons.
The Buccaneers (47.9) have Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka at receiver. Todd Bowles remains the head coach. The Colts (47.9) are Daniel Jones' team now, with Tyler Warren at tight end. The Panthers (47.9) have Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan. The Ravens (47.9) have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry -- but the rating says 8 wins, not 12. That is a big drop from the media perception. FanDuel has the Ravens at +1000 anyway, meaning the market expects a bounce back. The data says 8. The Ravens' reputation says more.
The Falcons (47.9) have Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, with Michael Penix Jr. on the bench and Drake London and Bijan Robinson as weapons.
Tier 6: The Sub-.500 Territory -- 43.5 and Below
Dolphins and Cowboys at 43.5 with 7 wins. Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals at 39.1 with 6 wins.
The Chiefs at 39.1 is the headline. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo. And the rating says 6 wins and a 39.1 rating. That is what a 2025 season of roster turnover and a middling defense produces. FanDuel still lists the Chiefs at +1600 -- the same as the Patriots and 49ers. The market is betting the 6-win season is the outlier, not the new baseline.
The Bengals at 39.1: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins. The draft added defensive help. But 6 wins is 6 wins.
Commanders (34.7, 5 wins) and Browns (34.7, 5 wins) are tied at the bottom of the competitive tier. Jayden Daniels enters Year 2. Cleveland has Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel all on the roster -- a quarterback room built for a competition.
Tier 7: The Basement -- 30.3 to 25.9
Giants at 30.3 with 4 wins. Raiders, Titans, Jets, Cardinals all at 25.9 with 3 wins.
The Jets spent three first-round picks this April -- David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr. -- and still have the worst rating in the league by a technicality (tied at 25.9 with three other teams). Geno Smith is the quarterback. Aaron Glenn is the head coach.
The Cardinals (25.9) took Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 overall. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the receiver. Carson Beck was the third-round quarterback pick. But 3 wins is a steep climb from.
What the ratings tell you: the NFL in 2025 had no truly dominant team. The three 14-win teams all rated the same. The gap between 5th place (65.5) and 16th place (47.9) is 17.6 points across 12 teams -- that is a flat league.
The Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens all posted sub-8-win ratings. The market will adjust. The data says they have work to do.
How to play this slate
You can project, argue, and rank these 32 teams yourself with zero barrier to entry at pickemengagement.com -- the free, no-risk platform that lets you build your own slate against the same 2026 schedule. No betting, no sign-up barrier, no odds. Just pick.
For readers in legal sports betting states (21+), the current FanDuel market has the Rams at +700 and the Bills, Seahawks, and Ravens all at +1000. That spread between the ratings and the prices is where the value lives -- or where the traps are.
Begin!