Steelers at Patriots: New England Is Priced Like a Team That Won Its Opener
The line: New England Patriots -5.5, total 41.5, moneyline New England Patriots -238 / Pittsburgh Steelers +195.
Our call: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5. Projected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 18, New England Patriots 24. Total: under 41.5.
New England scored 10 points in Week 1, lost 10-13 at Seattle, then came home to Gillette Stadium as a -238 favorite for a 1:00 local kickoff. That's the price worth attacking. Pittsburgh is 1-0 after a 20-13 win over Atlanta, and the market will pay +195 to anyone who wants the unbeaten side.
Start with the defenses, because that's where this one gets decided. Both units allowed exactly 13 points in their openers. New England held Seattle to 13 and lost. Pittsburgh held Atlanta to 13 and won. Identical defensive output, opposite results, and the offenses on the other side of those games produced 20 points and 10 points. Neither offense produced more than 20 in Week 1.
Now the moneyline. A -238 tag is a claim about a team, and the claim being made about New England is that a 10-point road loss was a floor rather than a ceiling. The Patriots get the benefit of the doubt because they're home. They haven't earned it on the field yet. Pittsburgh is 1-0 and getting plus money to stay within a number the market set for a team that hasn't shown it can score.
The matchup that decides it is New England's offense against a Pittsburgh defense that just held an opponent to 13. If that defense holds again, the Patriots have to win comfortably with an offense that produced 10 points in its only outing. Laying 5.5 with that offense is the bet against, and it's why the points are the side.
The total is the other half of the call. Under 41.5 is a bet on two defenses that surrendered 13 apiece. New England's offense managed 10. Pittsburgh's managed 20. Clearing 41.5 requires an assumption neither offense has supported, and a Steelers team that just won a game where the opposing offense was held to 13 isn't the unit to bet on for a shootout.
There's a real argument on the other side, and it's the one that worries me. Seattle is a long trip and a hard place to open a season, and the New England offense that shows up at Gillette could look nothing like the one that scored 10 points. If that Week 1 dud was situational rather than structural, the -238 is closer to fair than it looks and Pittsburgh's cushion disappears in a hurry. That's the risk, and it's the reason a 1-0 Steelers team is priced at +195 instead of something shorter.
Our projection hands the game to New England anyway. The pick is the points, and it's the points because of how this game is priced relative to what these two teams have actually put on tape. A -5.5 favorite that has scored 10 points is asking the market to trust an offense that hasn't given it a reason to. A 1-0 underdog with a defense that has allowed 13 points is asking for far less.
Pittsburgh +5.5, under 41.5, projected Steelers 18 and Patriots 24. If the Patriots' opener really was a Seattle problem, we're wrong and the -238 was right.
