The six-month mark after an Achilles tear is not a milestone—it's a mask.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen pulled that mask aside Tuesday when he announced that quarterback Anthony Richardson, still referred to by the team as "AP," would not participate in the team's mandatory minicamp. The decision itself was anticipated. What matters most is what Steichen didn't say—and what uncertainty now hangs over the Colts’ summer plans.
"He's doing good. We'll be smart with the situation, monitoring him through training camp," Steichen said. Then came the crucial qualifier: "Could he be ready for Week 1? We'll see where it goes."
That is not a timeline. That is a hedge. For anyone constructing betting or fantasy strategies around Richardson's 2026 return, this is the moment to recalibrate.
Steichen’s cautious approach on Richardson’s recovery
Steichen confirmed Richardson participated in individual and 7-on-7 drills last week but made it clear the quarterback would not take part in this week’s minicamp sessions. "AP will not participate," Steichen stated explicitly. When pressed, he admitted, "Probably could, but we're not going to do that right now."
This is a meaningful distinction. The team is not guarding a player who is held back by physical limitation alone—they are choosing caution despite Richardson’s readiness to push further. The recovery has reached a stage where risk management is paramount, and the Colts have yet to fully trust Richardson under competitive, live conditions.
Regarding when Richardson might return to full participation, Steichen was deliberately vague: "I'm not going to put a timetable on it, but at some point in training camp—whether it's the start or maybe a couple weeks in—we're just going to be smart."
That span—from day one of training camp to a few weeks in—is wide enough to prompt concern. Had Richardson been on track for an uncomplicated Week 1 start, Steichen’s window likely would have been narrower. Instead, the coach referenced the rigors of Achilles recovery: "Six months out there running around with the guys is pretty impressive... He's kind of on track or maybe a little bit ahead of schedule."
"A little bit ahead of schedule" for an Achilles comeback at six months does not equate to assured readiness for Week 1. The NFL bears many examples of quarterbacks who physically appeared ready yet faltered once full-speed pass rushes resumed. Steichen knows this history well. His language floated possibility without commitment.
The impact on the Colts’ quarterback room and receiving corps
The Colts now enter the 2026 season with a quarterback room comprised of Riley Leonard, Daniel Jones, Easton Stick, and the lingering question of Anthony Richardson's health. Leonard, who started five Colts games last season, completed 39 of 67 passes for 415 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Daniel Jones, acquired in the offseason following his release from the New York Giants, threw for 3,101 yards and 19 touchdowns in 13 games during the 2025 campaign.
If Richardson misses Week 1—or opens the season limited, serving in a game-day decision capacity—the Colts' passing game dynamics shift substantially.
Alec Pierce faces the most risk. After surpassing 1,000 receiving yards with six touchdowns in 15 games last season, his role leaned heavily on deep targets and a quarterback’s arm strength. With the uncertainty at quarterback, Pierce’s fantasy ceiling diminishes since Leonard or Jones is less likely to aggressively push deep throws early in the season. His current average draft position (ADP) does not fully reflect this emerging doubt.
Josh Downs, conversely, emerges as a more reliable target. His 58 catches for 566 yards and four touchdowns last season came amid a quarterback rotation, showcasing his ability to produce as a possession receiver. Leonard or Jones starting would likely increase Downs' per-game target share into the 7–8 catch range. He remains the safest Colts receiver to roster at this point.
Tight end Tyler Warren also secures a strong role. In his rookie season, Warren hauled in 76 catches for 817 yards and four touchdowns, operating as a dependable safety valve and check-down option. Whichever quarterback plays in Richardson’s stead is expected to lean heavily on Warren, especially on third downs, maintaining the tight end’s solid weekly fantasy floor.
Meanwhile, the battle for the Colts’ third receiver spot has intensified. Steichen confirmed Tuesday that Ashton Dulin, Laquon Treadwell, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are engaged in an open competition for playing time. This contest takes on added importance if the Colts rely on more conservative game-managing quarterbacks needing consistent, reliable route running.
Betting implications and Week 1 prop strategies
As of early June, the Colts sit at +4000 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel, and +5000 on BetOnline.ag—figures that assume Richardson will start most of the season. Should he miss time, or if Leonard or Jones assumes the reins, these odds warrant reassessment and likely lengthening.
More immediate are the Week 1 player prop bets. Bookmakers are expected to set Richardson’s passing yardage props low, given his limited 2025 sample (just two games, 1 completion on 2 attempts for 9 yards scored before injury). Market expectations will anchor around him being the probable starter. Savvy bettors may find value in unders on Richardson’s Week 1 props alongside overs for backups, betting on potential relief action depending on game flow and effectiveness.
What to monitor during training camp
The upcoming padded practices will be telling. Until Richardson faces a live pass rush, his recovery remains theoretical. Steichen’s statement on "monitoring him through training camp" underscores that the Colts are still regulating his participation carefully—not treating the rehab as a straightforward progression.
If Richardson has not fully rejoined contact drills by the second preseason week, it would be prudent to prepare for Leonard or Jones to start in September. Conversely, full participation in early camp could make Richardson’s early-season player props attractive buy-low opportunities, reflecting market overcorrections for continued caution.
For now, the smartest move may be patience. Await Richardson's first full-contact sessions before making firm fantasy or betting commitments. Let the evolving situation and team updates illuminate the true extent of Richardson’s readiness for the upcoming NFL campaign.
Colts coaching staff
Head Coach Shane Steichen continues to lead the Colts into 2026, supported by offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. General Manager Chris Ballard manages roster and personnel moves, with special teams overseen by Brian Mason.
Colts current quarterback roster snapshot
- Anthony Richardson Sr. (#5) recovering from Achilles injury with uncertain Week 1 status
- Riley Leonard (#15) poised for expanded role with five starts in 2025
- Daniel Jones (#17) veteran acquisition adding depth and starting experience
- Easton Stick providing additional depth
Colts leading receivers (2025 stats)
- Alec Pierce: 47 receptions, 1,003 yards, 6 touchdowns
- Josh Downs: 58 receptions, 566 yards, 4 touchdowns
- Tyler Warren (TE): 76 receptions, 817 yards, 4 touchdowns
- Ashton Dulin, Laquon Treadwell, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine competing for additional WR snaps
The Colts face a critical summer in navigating Anthony Richardson’s recovery timeline. Steichen’s hedged statements signal prudence is the priority—yet uncertainty remains. Fantasy football managers and bettors will be wise to monitor training camp closely and adjust plans accordingly.
Read the full transcript: Shane Steichen Offseason Media Availability Transcript (2026-06-09)
