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Pete Carmichael's OTA Plan: No Reinvention, Just Refinement for Bills Offense

By Cole Pryce5 min readBuffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills offense returns nearly all its key production from 2025 -- Josh Allen's 25 passing touchdowns, James Cook's 1,621 rushing yards, Dalton Kincaid's 5.2 yards per target -- and the man now tasked with coordinating it has delivered a clear message in the first phase of the 2026 offseason.

New offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, speaking during organized team activities (OTAs) in early June 2026, said he doesn't plan on reinventing Buffalo's offense.

That is not a throwaway line. It is a philosophical declaration.

Carmichael arrives with a track record of schematic flexibility. He spent years in New Orleans adapting around personnel. But this is not a rebuild. The Bills finished last season with the league's fourth-best scoring offense and the No. 2 rushing attack by yards per game. Carmichael inherits Josh Allen in his prime, a 1,600-yard back, and a tight end room that produced nine combined touchdowns between Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. The foundation is already poured.

The question is where Carmichael adds his own fingerprint without breaking what works.

What "No Reinvention" Actually Means

Carmichael's statement carries weight because of what it leaves out. He did not say "I'll run the same plays." He said he won't reinvent. That difference is critical.

Reinvention would mean a new terminology, a new formation hierarchy, and a new set of primary concepts. That process eats training camp reps and often stalls a passing game through September. The 2023 Bills offense, under then-coordinator Ken Dorsey, had integration issues after scheme tweaks. Carmichael is signaling he will not repeat that mistake.

But refinement is different. That happens inside the existing infrastructure: adjusting splits, varying tempo, altering how the same looks are deployed against different defensive fronts. Carmichael can install wrinkles -- new route combinations off base formations, more motion at the snap, shifts to get Kincaid matched against linebackers -- without changing the core language Allen uses at the line.

Allen's comfort is the variable that matters most. In 2025, he posted the best interception rate of his career (2.2 percent) while rushing for 14 touchdowns, third-most by a quarterback in a single season. The read-option and designed quarterback runs that create conflict for defenses -- those are not things you scrap. Allen is the system as much as the scheme.

Carmichael knows this. He has worked with elite quarterbacks before. He saw how Drew Brees's pre-snap control drove the Saints offense for years. The smart move is to give Allen ownership within the Carmichael structure, not force him into a new one.

Spring Caution vs. Fall Reality

OTAs are voluntary. They are also pajama football. Helmets but no pads. No live contact. The offense cannot establish its physical identity in May and early June.

That makes Carmichael's comments more significant for what they reveal about his philosophy than for any player performance in a no-pads drill. The real evaluation comes in August. Training camp will show whether the passing game retains its timing, whether the offensive line holds up against disguised blitzes, and whether Carmichael's adjustments during game week match what he talked about in the spring.

But the early returns from the locker room are favorable. Allen spoke during OTAs about the value of continuity. "There's a lot of lessons to be learned from guys of that nature who do things the right way," he said -- a reference to veteran leaders who maintain professional habits. That does not guarantee September success. It does suggest the transition has been smooth.

The Numbers Behind the Non-Overhaul

Here is where the analytical lens matters.

Buffalo's offense was among the league's most efficient last season. That last number is important. It means the Bills threw slightly less than the league baseline in neutral game scripts. That is a Jim Leonhard defense influence -- a coordinator who wants to control the clock and protect leads.

Carmichael has no history of being pass-heavy either. The 2023 Saints, under Carmichael as coordinator, had a balanced pass-run approach. His tendency is to work through the running game and use play-action off it. That aligns with what Buffalo already does. Cook saw 309 carries in 2025. Ray Davis added 58 more. The Bills were a run-first team in standard downs.

That marriage -- Carmichael's balanced philosophy with a personnel group built to run -- creates no friction.

The biggest unknown is third-down efficiency. Buffalo converted at a 41.8 percent rate last season, 14th in the league. Third-and-long situations often forced Kincaid or Khalil Shakir to win in compressed space. Shakir posted 719 yards on 72 catches, both career highs, but the Bills lacked a true seam-stretching threat after Stefon Diggs's departure. Keon Coleman adds a different body type at 6-foot-4, but his rookie production (38 catches, 404 yards, four touchdowns) suggests he is a boundary possession target, not a downfield separator.

If Carmichael's refinement includes more intermediate crossing routes off play-action -- a staple of his Saints offense -- Coleman and Kincaid could both see target volume increase.

What Comes Next

Mandatory minicamp is later this month. That is when the offensive installation picks up pace. Training camp follows in July. The Bills currently hold $9.81 million in cap space, with $46.21 million in dead money. Those constraints limit major free-agent additions. The improvement has to come from within.

Carmichael is betting that internal improvement is enough. He is not coming in to fix a broken unit. He is inheriting a top-five scoring offense with a Hall-of-Fame-level quarterback. The prudent move is to let the existing machine run while tuning the parts that matter most.

He said he won't reinvent the offense. The data says he shouldn't. The real test comes when the defense can hit the quarterback. Until then, the Bills look like a team that knows what it is -- and has a coordinator smart enough not to change it.

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