Josh Allen carries guilt the way most quarterbacks carry blame: straight into the locker room, where it doesn't belong.
The Bills' franchise quarterback has said he still feels guilty about Sean McDermott's firing, which came after Buffalo's divisional-round overtime loss to the Denver Broncos in January 2026. That defeat ended McDermott's seven-year run in Buffalo and created one of the last head-coaching vacancies of the 2026 NFL cycle. Allen has had eight months to process it. He's still carrying it.
Here's the thing. That guilt is misplaced.
To be direct: Allen should not own McDermott's departure, and the data backs that up. The Bills lost to Denver in overtime because the defense couldn't get off the field in the game's biggest moments, not because the offense failed. And even if you want to split the blame, the quarterback who threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions while adding 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns in the 2025 season was not the reason his head coach lost the job.
Allen's 14 rushing touchdowns are especially telling. That's not simply a quarterback stat -- it's a weapon stat. He ran for more scores last season than most starting running backs in the league. He was Buffalo's most efficient short-yardage option, their goal-line hammer, and their best scramble threat. When the offense worked, it was largely because No. 17 was doing everything. When it didn't, the blame belongs elsewhere.
So why does Allen feel guilty?
Because quarterbacks internalize. It's built into the position. When the season ends early, the guy with the ball in his hands at the two-minute warning assumes responsibility. Allen is wired that way, and it's part of why he's been so steady for the Bills. But steady is not the same as responsible. The overtime loss to Denver wasn't a failure by Josh Allen. It was a team failure with a specific, identifiable cause.
Let's talk about what actually happened.
The Bills entered the divisional round as a team built on offensive efficiency. Allen posted a 319-for-460 passing line in 2025, completing 69.3 percent of his throws, one of the most accurate marks of his career. James Cook III ran for 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns, giving Buffalo the league's most productive backfield duo. Dalton Kincaid added 571 receiving yards and five touchdowns despite missing time. The offense wasn't the problem. It ranked among the league's best at moving the ball and finishing drives.
The defense, though, gave up the game.
Denver's offense, led by quarterback Bo Nix, controlled the clock and converted when it mattered. The Broncos found ways to sustain drives against a Buffalo defense that couldn't get stops on third-and-long. While exact statistics on third-down conversions aren't in front of us, the outcome is clear: Denver scored enough in overtime to win, and Buffalo didn't get the ball back with a chance to respond until it was too late.
That's a defensive failure. That's a scheme failure. That's a coaching failure.
Here's the bigger picture: McDermott's firing wasn't about one game. It was about a pattern. The Bills have been a regular-season powerhouse under McDermott, but they've consistently struggled to close out playoff games against elite competition. The loss to Denver was the most recent in a string of postseason disappointments. That pattern -- not Allen's performance -- cost McDermott his job.
Now the Bills are moving forward under head coach Joe Brady, who was promoted from offensive coordinator. Brady has been in the room with Allen for two seasons, including the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, and he installed the offensive system that helped Cook become a 1,600-yard rusher. He is not a defensive coach, which raises the obvious question: can a first-time head coach with an offensive background fix the side of the ball that cost Buffalo the playoff game?
Maybe. But here's the hard truth: Brady's promotion doesn't fix the defense unless he hires the right defensive coordinator. The Bills' defensive coordinator is Jim Leonhard, who is serving his first season at this NFL level. Leonhard inherits a unit featuring Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, and Bradley Chubb on the defensive line, with Christian Benford and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the secondary. That's talent. The question is whether Leonhard can scheme the unit into one that stops teams in January.
The roster itself tells a story. Buffalo's front office, led by general manager Brandon Beane, has focused heavily on both the offensive line and defensive front in recent drafts. The 2026 draft class added T.J. Parker at edge, Davison Igbinosun at corner, and defensive tackle Zane Durant in the fifth round. Beane's philosophy, as he stated this week, is simple: "We want to be strong up front, we talk about that, we want to protect number 17, that's where it all starts."
That statement is the clearest signal of what this franchise prioritizes: protect Allen, give him time, and let him win games. The defense is secondary in the hierarchy. And that's fine -- most teams with an elite quarterback structure their roster similarly. But it means Allen's guilt is not just misplaced. It's counterproductive.
Here's the analytical case for why Allen isn't the problem.
In 2025, Allen finished with a 25-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio -- a 2.5-to-1 rate, which is solid for a quarterback who runs as much as he does. He threw for 3,668 yards, which is not a career high but reflects a balanced offense leaning heavily on Cook in the running game. The rushing production -- 579 yards and 14 touchdowns -- is where Allen separated himself from every other quarterback leaguewide. No other QB provides that dual-threat production at this level of efficiency.
The guilt, frankly, is a product of Allen's mindset, not his performance. As a franchise, the Bills should be more concerned with Allen feeling guilty than with the loss itself. A quarterback who carries guilt into a new season under a new head coach is a quarterback who presses. Pressing leads to mistakes. Mistakes lead to turnovers. And turnovers are the one thing that can derail a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The Bills are listed at +1000 to win the Super Bowl at major sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetOnline, and BetRivers. That puts them among the top-tier contenders alongside other usual suspects. But that number assumes Allen plays like the version of himself who finished 2025 -- confident, aggressive, and unburdened. If he spends mental energy on a firing he didn't cause, that line starts to look less attractive.
The franchise needs to do everything it can to remind Allen that McDermott's departure was a business decision, not a football judgment on the quarterback's performance. Beane's public comments this week about wanting to "reward our own" and keeping good players in Buffalo are part of that messaging. So is the team's continued investment in offensive skill talent, including wide receiver DJ Moore, who arrived in a trade and provides the kind of downfield threat Buffalo has sometimes lacked.
Here's the final verdict: Allen's guilt is understandable but misplaced, and the Bills should treat it as a coaching opportunity, not a personnel problem. Brady's first job this season isn't just installing a scheme -- it's making sure his quarterback understands that the past is the past. If Allen plays free and confident, the +1000 number starts to look like value. If he spends the season replaying January, the Bills risk the same early playoff exits they have faced for years.
The loss to Denver wasn't Allen's fault. The firing wasn't his fault. And the only way he proves that is by doing what he's always done -- being one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league. Guilt has no place in that equation.
