Titans at Ravens: The Biggest Spread on the Week 4 Board Is the One to Take
The number is 11.5, the largest on the board, and the price attached to it leaves no ambiguity about the market's read: Baltimore -700, Tennessee +500 (odds via ESPN, captured Mon Sep 28). Sunday, 1 p.m. local, M&T Bank Stadium.
Take the points.
Tennessee is 0-3 for reasons that have little to do with being 11.5 points worse than Baltimore. The Titans lost 10-23 to the Jets, 20-24 to the Eagles, 7-12 at the Giants. Two of those three stayed inside a single score. The season totals, 37 points for and 59 against with a minus-22 differential, describe an offense that cannot finish paired with a defense that has kept games from becoming routs. Records drive spreads this time of year more than anything else, and 0-3 is a heavy label. The Titans' differential is the number of a team that has been competitive and lost.
The Ravens can finish. Ninety-two points in three games, a plus-14 differential, wins of 41-23 at Indianapolis and 34-31 at Dallas. They also lost at home to New Orleans, 17-24, in the only game they have played at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore has allowed 78 points in three games. To lay 11.5, a defense has to close a game out. The Ravens have been trading scores, not slamming doors.
The matchup that decides this is Baltimore's offense against Tennessee's ability to stay on the field. The Titans have scored 10, 20 and 7. Nothing above 20 all season. That is the case against our own pick, and it is real. An afternoon of short possessions ends this in the third quarter.
A cover does not require Tennessee to score 30. It requires the Titans to be within one score in the fourth quarter, and their defense has been good enough to make that plausible: 59 points allowed in three games, fewer than Baltimore has surrendered.
Our call is Tennessee +11.5, with a projected score of Titans 16 and Ravens 28, and the over at 43.5. The Ravens should win. They shouldn't win by the number, and our own projected score is thin enough that anyone holding the points should know exactly what they're holding.
The likeliest way this breaks: Baltimore's 92 points against a Titans defense that has given up 59, with a Tennessee offense that has not topped 20 in a game trying to keep pace. If the Titans' first two drives die, the number is gone by halftime.
